{"id":16652,"date":"2018-11-27T17:33:05","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T23:33:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/?p=16652"},"modified":"2018-11-27T17:33:05","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T23:33:05","slug":"as-new-mexican-president-takes-office-experts-foresee-rocky-road-in-relations-with-u-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/as-new-mexican-president-takes-office-experts-foresee-rocky-road-in-relations-with-u-s\/","title":{"rendered":"As new Mexican president takes office, experts foresee rocky road in relations with U.S."},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-words=\"30\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-texas\/houston\/article\/As-new-Mexican-president-takes-office-experts-13419039.php#photo-16538526\"><span class=\"header-authors-name\">Houston Chronicle \/ Olivia P. Tallet<\/span>\u00a0\/ November 15<\/a><\/p>\n<p data-words=\"30\">\n<p data-words=\"30\">Two men with outsized personalities, both intent on bringing dramatic change to their societies. Two countries, side by side, with a long history of friendly trade and sometimes hostile diplomacy.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"35\">As leftist president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes the mantle of the Mexican presidency Dec. 1, political experts, former diplomats and business leaders are bracing for a potential collision with self-styled nationalist President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"40\">The anticipated confrontation between Trump and Lopez Obrador \u2014 commonly called by his initials, AMLO \u2014 could affect Texas more than any other state given the billions of dollars in Lone Star products that are sold south of the border.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"59\">The possible flash points include a changing energy policy, trade protections, increased heroin and methamphetamine trafficking and an abrupt reversal of the Mexican government\u2019s costly campaign to confront the powerful drug cartels. But perhaps the biggest is the bitterness engendered by Trump\u2019s harsh immigration policies and his plan to erect an impenetrable wall along 1,200 miles of U.S.-Mexico border.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"36\">\u201cThere is a rocky road ahead for the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico and the two presidents,\u201d said Duncan Wood, the director of the Wilson Center\u2019s Mexico Institute, during in a recent visit to Houston.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"76\">Lopez Obrador is a skilled politician who was mayor of Mexico City from 2000 to 2005 and national party leader, running twice for the presidency prior to winning. He and Trump are forceful, charismatic leaders with a populist, anti-establishment bent to their politics and are adept at inflaming the passions of their base supporters. And perhaps more to the point when it comes to a personality contest, \u201cNeither of them likes to be contradicted,\u201d said Wood.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_A_first\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-a\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"31\">Indeed, Trump had reportedly referred to the Mexican president-elect as \u201cJuan Trump,\u201d a recognition of the similarities between him and the populist Mexican politician, according to a story in Americas Quarterly.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"41\">Both leaders have taken unexpected steps to demonstrate their resolve. Lopez Obrador has put Mexico\u2019s $218 million presidential jet up for sale, while Trump earlier renegotiated the price tag of two Air Force One replacements and claimed savings of $1.4 billion.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"42\">But Lopez Obrador has distanced himself from any semblance to Trump, who, in his opinion, \u201cfuels racism \u2026 as a political strategy\u201d and a leader who has done Mexico much damage, according to an interview with the Spanish language TV network Univision.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_B_2\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-b\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"16\">Vice President Mike Pence will lead the U.S. delegation to Mexico to attend Lopez Obrador\u2019s inauguration.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-point\" data-component=\"ad\"><\/aside>\n<p data-words=\"4\"><strong>New course for Mexico?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-words=\"17\">Observers say the Mexican leader has already given some key indications of the course he will steer.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"54\">Lopez Obrador\u2019s plan to cancel the construction of the Mexico City airport, a $13.3 billion project with a third of the work already completed, sent shock waves through the investment and business sectors. With U.S. foreign direct investments in Mexico of $110 billion last year, concerns rose about Mexico as a reliable business partner.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_A_2\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-a\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"58\">\u201cWe are already getting a sense of what an AMLO presidency might look like, since the administration has named many of the key policy personnel and moved forward on some campaign promises, such as its consultation for whether or not to keep building the new Mexico City airport,\u201d said Antonio \u201cTony\u201d Garza, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"65\">Lopez Obrador was able to easily wrest power from outgoing President Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto, whose Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had supported global open markets and free trade. But Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u2019s presidency was also hamstrung by unchecked corruption and what was perceived by the Mexican populace as a submissive stance when Trump met with the president and insisted that Mexico would pay for the border wall.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"30\">\u201cTrump\u2019s nationalism looks outward; it manifests in attacks on international institutions and the leaders and people from other countries,\u201d said Tony Payan, the director of the Baker Institute\u2019s Mexico Center.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"55\">Lopez Obrador\u2019s nationalism looks inward to restoring Mexico\u2019s working class with subsidized policies, \u201cseeking to restore the state as a central economic agent, and his criticism of globalization and the (North American) free trade agreement has to do with his belief that previous administrations implemented a neoliberal economic model that punished the poor,\u201d Payan said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_B_3\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-b\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"4\"><strong>Key energy policy changes<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-words=\"24\">The stakes are high for the future of the U.S. economic relationship with Mexico, its third-largest trading partner with combined trade of $616 billion.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"44\">Mexico was the second largest export market for U.S. products in 2017, while becoming the largest provider of fruits and vegetables and other agricultural products, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Cross-border trade between Texas and Mexico was $187 billion.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"63\">Wood agreed that Lopez Obrador\u2019s appointees so far signal a cabinet that is committed to unraveling the energy reforms signed into law in August 2014 by the previous administration, with AMLO already announcing a plan to suspend auctions for oil production contracts in the Gulf of Mexico. \u201cI am particularly worried about the energy sector and what happens next with it,\u201d Wood said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_A_3\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-a\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"44\">So far, 110 oil and gas contracts representing about $200 billion in foreign investment have been granted under Mexico\u2019s reform of its energy sector and the national PEMEX oil monopoly, with U.S. companies winning the second highest number of contracts after private Mexican firms.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"22\">The energy reforms were considered to be particularly beneficial to Houston\u2019s economy, given its leadership in offshore oil exploration and production technologies.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"16\">At a minimum, the airport pullout signaled that Lopez Obrador plans to deliver on campaign promises.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"54\">In a recent speech, he pledged to \u201crescue the oil and gas industry,\u201d from a decline in production that he blamed to the historic opening of PEMEX to foreign investment. When enacted, Lopez Obrador accused the current president of being a \u201ctraitor to the country\u201d for handing over \u201cthe country\u2019s natural resources to foreigners.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_B_last\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-b\"><\/div>\n<p data-words=\"53\">\u201cThe likelihood of the next (Mexican) administration impacting how business is done in the energy sector is high,\u201d said Garza, who\u2019s now counsel to the law firm of White &amp; Case in Mexico City. \u201cThe question is how disruptive will it be and if returns will be seen as justifying the additional risk.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"54\">\u201cSo far AMLO\u2019s party has proposed legislation aimed at the new regulatory framework,\u201d said Garza, adding that the president elect has been \u201call over the board on issues having to do with gas and power, and essentially come out against fracking, all of which, if he\u2019s serious about, have the potential to impact Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"22\">Gov. Greg Abbott, through a press aide, said he welcomes working with Mexico\u2019s new administration to build on economic and cultural bonds.<\/p>\n<p data-words=\"54\">\u201cGovernor Abbott believes that a strong relationship with Mexico, our largest trade partner, is essential to Texas\u2019 economic success,\u201d said Ciara Matthews, deputy communications director. \u201cThrough cooperation on infrastructure, energy, trade, and security, Texas and Mexico will continue to strengthen our long-standing relationship and bring even greater prosperity to both sides of the border.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"module_A_last\" class=\"bc-recirculation bc-recirculation-a\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Differences over immigration<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Differences with Mexico regarding Trump\u2019s immigration policies, analysts said, could be another contentious topic.<\/p>\n<p>As caravans of migrants departed Central America to seek asylum at the U.S. border in the weeks before midterm elections, Trump moved quickly to politicize the \u201ccaravan\u201d by branding it an \u201cinvasion\u201d and claiming that Middle Eastern terrorists and gang members were among their ranks.<\/p>\n<p>Trump ordered the U.S. military to the border, and meanwhile threatened to withhold foreign aid to Mexico and the Central American countries whose citizens are fleeing economic hardship and violence.<\/p>\n<p>Mexico choose not to halt the migrants by force, but instead offered visas and asylum to the Central Americans in an effort to induce many to abandon the long trek to the north. Trump has declared the migrant caravans a national security threat, and ordered border agents not to accept asylum seekers who enter the U.S. away from legal ports of entry.<\/p>\n<p>Lopez Obrador has repeatedly criticized Trump\u2019s \u201cxenophobic\u201d and disrespectful depiction of migrants and insisted they should receive humanitarian treatment.<\/p>\n<p>During his presidential campaign, Lopez Obrador introduced a petition before the Inter American Commission on Human Rights condemning Trump for allegedly persecuting immigrants and implementing hate speeches and policies, such as the border wall, in violation of human rights, as he and a lawyer explained the action.<\/p>\n<p><strong>War on drugs in flux <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, Lopez Obrador said his administration will de-emphasize the fight against drug cartels, focusing instead on roots of crime, according to a Bloomberg report.<\/p>\n<p>Main points of the strategy include creating a national guard and stressing regional coordination of security efforts, eradicating corruption, rethinking the prohibition of some drugs and creating job opportunities, Lopez Obrador and cabinet members have said.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-texas\/houston\/article\/As-new-Mexican-president-takes-office-experts-13419039.php#photo-16538526\"><span class=\"header-authors-name\">Houston Chronicle \/ Olivia P. Tallet<\/span>\u00a0\/ November 15<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-16653 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2018-11-27-at-17.30.09-300x198.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2018-11-27-at-17.30.09-300x198.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2018-11-27-at-17.30.09-450x297.jpeg 450w, https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/WhatsApp-Image-2018-11-27-at-17.30.09.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Houston Chronicle \/ Olivia P. Tallet\u00a0\/ November 15 Two men with outsized personalities, both intent on bringing dramatic change to their societies. Two countries, side by side, with a long history of friendly trade and sometimes hostile diplomacy. As leftist president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes the mantle of the Mexican presidency Dec. 1, political [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":16653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1518,1474,1017],"tags":[1951,199,1436],"class_list":["post-16652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-markets","category-mexicos-energy-reform","category-news","tag-investments","tag-mexico","tag-u-s"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16652\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nrgibroker.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}