Tag Archive for: Sector Hidrocarburos

Is Mexico Set To Boost Oil Output?

Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

 

On July 27, Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador said his government will earmark more than $9 billion for state-run energy companies next year and start working on a new oil refinery in southern Mexico. The moves seek to reduce reliance on fuel imports from the United States while boosting the country’s oil production, which has significantly fallen off in recent years. López Obrador did not say how he would fund his proposals, an omission that worries analysts concerned about Pemex’s already heavy debt burden. He also announced Octavio Romero Oropeza as the incoming head of Pemex. Will the promised investment help accelerate Pemex’s oil and gas production? What else is needed to boost output? How well prepared is Romero Oropeza to lead Pemex, and what should his priorities be? Four Mexican energy experts weighed in with their opinions on these developments.

George Baker, publisher of Mexico Energy Intelligence in Houston: The 116-page energy sector document that the Morena transition team issued on July 10 sports both good and bad ideas. First, among the good ideas, is advocating independent unions in the oil sector (the first time since 1935 that a political party has done this). Second is suspending until further review the so-called farm-outs of Pemex—the idea that civil servants (Pemex employees) and market-disciplined managers of oil companies can have a joint venture based on sharing risk and reward only makes sense on paper. Third is promoting the concept of intelligent cities, including low energy consumption, renewable energy and intelligent grids. A fourth good idea is expanding the grid of natural gas pipelines and the use of renewable energy sources and cogeneration. Among the bad ideas: first is reactivating the refinery project in Tula and analyzing the construction of another refinery in the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex refinery upgrades have gone badly for the past 20 years, notably in Cadereyta, Villahermosa and Tula. A new refinery could take three years just for design and another three for contracting and financing. López Obrador would likely leave office before the first shovelful of earth was turned for the new refinery. Second is the upgrade of the role of Pemex in the energy space. The Morena team proposes to eliminate the so-called ‘asymmetrical regulations’ that restrict Pemex to compete effectively—to aspire to ‘make Pemex great again’ as a state agency is to ignore global success stories of state oil companies with mixed-equity structures, market financing and professional management. Finally, a third bad idea is to overstate (and obfuscate) the potential for change via public policy: there is nothing that is actionable in statements such as ‘the necessary investments in Pemex should be made,’ or ‘efforts to increase exploration and production of natural gas should be made to favor the petrochemical industry,’ or ‘deepen and coordinate all efforts to eliminate the black market in petroleum products.’ Notably, one word that does not appear in the text is ‘corruption,’ an unexpected omission by a candidate that vowed to end corruption by example. Finally, former Pemex director general Adrián Lajous recently calculated the average tenure of a director general as two years and four months. Pemex, legally configured as an agency of the federal government, always has a dozen cooks in its kitchen of corporate governance. If a director general had the authority to order early retirement for 35,000 Pemex unionized workers, there would be opportunities for leadership.

David Shields, independent energy consultant based in Mexico City: In a previous comment for the Energy Advisor on June 15, I mentioned that President-elect López Obrador’s energy team has excellent, progressive plans in renewable energy. Sadly, the same does not apply to conventional energy. The naming of Octavio Romero and Manuel Bartlett to head state-run Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has been severely criticized because of their hardline political, ideological, non-technical, non-business nature. They may be okay for rooting out corruption, but they add to fears that recent energy reforms may be rolled back, even if they and López Obrador himself deny legal amendments will be made. Congress will ultimately decide on this, and the outlook there is bad. Reforms can be reversed in practice, anyway, just through day-to-day opposition. López Obrador says he will push oil output up sharply to 2.5 million barrels per day, but reserves and reservoirs are largely depleted, there are no new discoveries, and there is not enough money for a vast exploration effort. Foreign operators will need several years to develop their projects. His best bet for ramping up output quickly would be fracking, but he promises to prohibit that, thinking that environmental risks will be greater than the benefits. His refining plans are unrealistic, too. López Obrador´s native Tabasco State offers the wrong site and the wrong logistics for a large-scale refinery to be built in just three years. Such a project normally requires two years to study, plan and tender, then another five or six years to build. Even then, it can hardly be profitable if Mexico produces and processes only very heavy crude. Intentions to rescue Pemex and reduce reliance on energy imports are good, but the prospects are not.

 

Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

 

Interview with Graciela Álvarez, CEO of NRGI Broker

Mexico Oil & Gas Review / 18 Julio

 

Company bio: NRGI Broker specializes in insurance and surety bonds for the Mexican energy sector. It develops custom-made solutions for companies operating in the energy sector, including vessel, construction and engineering and catastrophic risks.

 

Q: How has NRGI Broker created market opportunities to expand the reach of its services?

A: I am proud to say that we have played a great role in the implementation of the Energy Reform. We have been standing with our country since the beginning, we trusted the reform and now we have mastered how it works. We are a Mexican broker that  has a broad services portfolio and we have consolidated as the best one in the market We have also established “Voces de Energía”, a forum where experts discuss the reform’s environmental, social and fiscal regulations.

Q: How will NRGI Broker benefit its potential clients and partners going forward?

A: In the long term, we see the company as a consolidated reference in the fields of insurance and sureties for the oil and gas industry. We are savvy about the needs of the companies along the entire value chain in hydrocarbons and we are an established adviser for risk management and on financial regulations. We started strong in offshore, ever since activity began in that area, and now we are talking about moving into onshore. The trend is to set new partnerships for storage, pipelines, clean energies and alike. We are investing in putting our brand’s name out there and showcasing that we offer a full range of services few other companies offer.

Q: What are the Top 3 successes of the Energy Reform?

A: I have a vivid memory of observing the Energy Reform’s application when I was acting as an adviser for ASEA in 2014, which gave me the chance to understand how the reform was set in motion. The first success was the implementation itself, which was accomplished according to the same spectrum of norms, rules and opportunities. The second success was the establishment of strong and transparent organisms to guide the implementation that facilitated the cohabitation of all different players in a single environment, which has grown to represent 18 operators. The third is the 72 percent rate of successful allocation of everything that has been tendered in the licensing rounds, demonstrating the genuine interest that local and foreign companies have in Mexico.

Q: How have local and foreign companies adapted to the new regulations and what have been the major hurdles in this process?

A: Everything comes down to an understanding that we need a unified regulatory framework and this cannot be implemented without looking at international standards. The reform’s planning was based on the experiences of seven countries that underwent similar processes, so it is molded to global requirements. Those international players that recently entered the market are used to these types of regulations since they apply to other territories, while many Mexican companies have previously worked with foreign partners that use those standards. For most local companies, application was not an issue. On the contrary, companies operating in the hydrocarbons sector now have the certainty of working in an environment protected by a well-established regulatory framework.

Q: How has NRGI Broker contributed to changing the local mindset and raising awareness about the need for insurance?

A: We advised ASEA when it conducted a three-year study on the best practices and experiences of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Norway, the UK and the US that could be applied to the Mexican case. We worked with it every step of the way to establish these rules, from offshore platforms to setting up gas stations, and we developed the administrative dispositions for insurance in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. Insurance is required if this industry is to function properly and this mandatory status made things easier for us in terms of application. We are certain about the need to transform the attitude toward insurance and to combine that with our experience, specialization and innovation to offer personalized solutions to our clients.

Q: How will PEMEX’s migration projects make the company more competitive and productive?

A: This is a great strategy for PEMEX to establish investment partnerships that are specialists in how fields work, the reserves included in those fields and the different options to exploit them. This is a long-term investment business that opens the door to new opportunities to turn PEMEX into a more competitive entity. It is a win-win situation. It is important to note that PEMEX gets to keep the land ownership for these migrations; they only allow investment from third parties. One of the company’s future strengths lies in its capitalization and the establishment of partnerships with technology-driven companies. By binding all the parties involved in these type of projects, the companies are forced to bring their A game and deliver on their promises because they would harm themselves if they fell short due to the interdependence ingrained in this framework.

Q: What direction would you like the next administration to follow related to the industry?

A: I hope the next administration understands the implication of keeping the Energy Reform afloat. The reform was meant to contribute to the country and it has been set in motion successfully. The next president should push for new partnerships to continue deepening the reform’s outreach. What is important to understand is that reversing this process would be harmful to the country and it would hurt many companies that have supported and invested in its application.

 

Para leer la edición 2018, da clic aquí.

 

Mexico Oil & Gas Review / 18 Julio