Five Reasons Oil Is Driving The Stock Market

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At its basic level the price of oil is a product of supply and demand. Other factors such as political turmoil can influence it but the main factor is supply and demand. At times and especially now oil is viewed as a proxy for the global economy, which has a ripple effect on the stock market. Over the past month the changes in the price of oil have had a very large influence on the US and international stock markets. There are at least five reasons for this which I’ve outlined below.

1. Lower oil prices may signal the global economy is slowing

Commodities such as copper and oil can be signals that worldwide economic growth is accelerating or decelerating. Oil was $100 a barrel in August 2014 and went into free fall to $45 in January 2015. It bounced back to $60 between May and June and then went into a slide and has been trading between $30 and $35 for the past month.

While lower oil prices are positive for US consumers and other countries that are large oil importers such as China, Japan and most of Western Europe concerns about lower growth rates in China are negating the benefits. China had been the driver for increased oil demand over the past five years and with oil prices collapsing it appears that its economy may be slowing more than anticipated. This is also exacerbated by concerns that the economic data released by China is rosier than it actually is.

2. Oil export nations are tapping into their stock holdings

Every large oil exporting country budgeted their tax revenues from oil at much higher levels. Saudi Arabia had $635 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of November 2015 and withdrew almost $100 billion from global asset managers over the past year. Russia’s monetary reserves dropped by $40 billion and could be exhausted in 2016.

For the 11 OPEC countries it is estimated that their budget deficits increased from $17 to $278 billion in 2015. At the current oil price their deficits will be larger in 2016. Norway has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds at $805 billion and is tapping into it to fill its budget gap. While not all the assets that these companies are selling are equities a large percentage must be due to their liquidity. This creates pressure on stock prices.

3. Oil companies cutting spending

As oil prices went over $100 the oil sector boomed in the US and one state that very high correlation of 0.9 for the 50 day rolling average between the S&P 500 and the price of oil. Back in 2013 people with no experience were being paid $100,000 and unemployment was 1% compared to the national rate of 7.5%.

Certain parts of Texas have also been hit hard. I saw a news story about a small oil supply firm that has seen its business drop 90% with only safety related equipment being sold. Another has  laid off over 150 of its 200 employees. Exxon also announced that it was cutting its capital expenditures in 2016 by 25% which is billions of dollars.

4. Bank loans to the oil sector

Investors are concerned that a large number of loans that allowed US oil companies to rapidly expand fracking operations over the past few years will default. These companies took on a lot of debt based on higher oil prices and are now hanging on by a thread. While the oil companies continue to pump as much as they can, as long as it covers the marginal cost of extracting it, they are trying to generate enough cash to service the debt and stay in business. This of course keeps prices lower.

The ripple effect for the banks is if they have too much of their loan portfolio lent out to these companies the banks will have to write off a large portion of the loans. Investors are taking more of a shoot first (sell bank stocks they believe are exposed) and ask questions later. Having the price of oil stay low only makes this item worse.

5. Algorithms are driving stock movements based on oil price changes

There is a lot of fast money that gravitates to whatever trading system works. For at least the past month there has been a very high correlation of 0.9 for the 50 day rolling average between the S&P 500 and the price of oil (1.0 being that two assets trade in lock step, 0 being there is no relationship and -1.0 being they move in opposite directions).

Oil Is Driving The Stock Market

 

Copyright: Forbes

Why Cheap Oil Prices Could Be Bad for the Global Economy

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Drivers are rejoicing over historically low prices at the pump.Yet while cheap gas prices are great for household budgets, they could indicate big trouble for the global economy, some economists say.

Markets around the world rely heavily on emerging economies—which, with the exception of China and India, are rich in oil and commodities, Bloomberg explained. These countries make up about 40 percent of global gross domestic product, double that in 1990.

Some of these markets, including oil-rich Russia and Saudi Arabia, are experiencing slow, and even shrinking, economic growth due to plunging oil prices. (Low oil prices are what’s responsible for low consumer gas prices.) Other markets, such as Nigeria, Suriname and Azerbaijan, have a high risk of default. Venezuela, one of the top 10 oil exporters, is considered one of the most likely default candidates. Its bonds maturing in 2022 are supposed to yield more than 40%, while in 2013, the yield was less than 10%, Bloomberg reported.

The slowdown has also extended to other industries, with Apple blaming weaker sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 on lagging economic growth in some emerging oil-rich nations. At the same time, however, consumers around the globe should have more disposable income because of what they’re saving thanks to cheaper fuel, heating, and energy costs. Some analysts maintain that this increase in disposable income should boost spending in other areas and keep the economy humming along.

Still, the changing demographics of oil production could hurt the global economy. While in the past the loss to exporters was bolstered by importers’ gains, the U.S. now competes with Saudi Arabia and Russia for the title of the world’s largest oil producer.

“Many oil exporters face very difficult circumstances,” Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, the IMF’s deputy director of research, told Bloomberg. “So now they have to cut spending significantly, and this will have an impact on economic growth.”

OIL PRICE ECONOMY

Copyright: Time

No Decision Yet on OPEC, Non-OPEC Meeting, Some in OPEC Skeptical: Delegates

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OPEC has not yet scheduled any talks with Russia and other non-OPEC countries aimed at supporting oil prices, two OPEC delegates said on Tuesday after Russian officials talked up potential cooperation with the exporter group.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was open to further cooperation in the oil market with OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

The prospect of supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and rivals has helped oil prices rise above $32 a barrel from a 12-year low close to $27 last month, despite widespread scepticism that a deal will happen.

OPEC delegates have previously suggested OPEC and non-OPEC could hold talks in February or March. But no date has been scheduled, and one delegate said OPEC did not have a common view on the aim of such a meeting.

“There is nothing from OPEC yet. It is not fixed,” an OPEC delegate said, who added that expert-level OPEC meetings with non-members held in 2015 did not result in supply cuts.

“We had two meetings before. The two sides discussed the market, but there were no concrete steps.”

A second OPEC delegate said there was little point in OPEC holding a meeting with non-OPEC until OPEC itself had agreed a common position. For example, Iran, after the lifting of Western sanctions, wants to recover market share, a source familiar with the matter said last week, not cut output.

“Some of them, OPEC member-countries, are not sure what we are going to do in this meeting with non-OPEC,” the delegate said. “If the meeting takes place without results, we’ll have a big problem with the market, the price will go down.”

Venezuela has called for a standalone meeting of OPEC to discuss steps to prop up prices. But a number of OPEC members have reacted coolly to the idea, suggesting no meeting will take place.

opec

Copyright: New York Times