A closer look at round seven of the NAFTA negotiations

FROM: Lexology / Dentons / 19 de marzo de 2018

 

Round seven of the NAFTA negotiations concluded in Mexico City on March 5, 2018. The talks ended with United States Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, indicating that the US is prepared to walk away from NAFTA and replace it with separate bilateral agreements. He urged the parties to finish the negotiations quickly, “Now our time is running very short…I fear the longer we proceed, the more political headwinds we will feel.”1 Lighthizer alluded to several ‘political headwinds’ that could impact the future of negotiations, including the presidential election in Mexico, provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec, and the US midterm elections.

The talks were impacted midweek by an announcement from President Trump that his Administration would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The proposed tariff would be 25% for steel imports and 10% for aluminum imports.

The proposed tariff triggered controversy within the Republican Party and the Administration itself. US House Speaker Paul Ryan, backed by a number of Republicans who support the President, has urged President Trump to back away from threats of a tariff, fearing that it could spark a trade war.2 In a letter to the President, 107 House Republicans wrote, “We urge you to reconsider the idea of broad tariffs to avoid unintended consequences to the U.S. economy and its workers.”3 On March 6, Gary Cohn, President Trump’s economic advisor, resigned. Cohn was a voice of free trade in a White House that is ambiguous at best on trade agreements.4

While the tariffs announced by President Trump ultimately excluded Canada and Mexico “for now”, the threat of tariffs proposal loomed over the remainder of the negotiations. Reportedly, the proposed tariff was the starting point for many discussions and was often referred to as “the elephant in the room”.5 The tariff proposal further impacted negotiations when President Trump linked the tariffs to the NAFTA negotiations. On March 5, he tweeted “Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed”.6 Canadian Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland responded in her closing remarks by saying “Canada would view any trade restrictions on Canadian steel or aluminum as absolutely unacceptable.”7 Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo responded by tweeting “Mexico shouldn’t be included in steel & aluminum tariffs. It is the wrong way to incentivize the creation of a new and modern #NAFTA”.8 On March 7, President Trump announced that he would initially exclude Canada and Mexico from the proposed tariff. However, the exemption could be rescinded if Canada and Mexico do not agree to an updated NAFTA.9

Notwithstanding the short term exemption on steel, supported by the Steelworkers and Speaker Ryan, President Trump again tweeted on March 5 on the Canadian farm system and how Canada “must treat [US] farmers much better.” Thus, US agricultural demands remain on the table, while Canada continues to steadfastly defend its agricultural sector, including the supply management system. Whether and how the negotiators will successfully bridge this issue remains to be seen.

Limited progress was made in other areas, such as the rules of origin provisions. Jason Bernstein, the US negotiator for rules of origin, was called back to Washington on February 26 to consult with US industry representatives, thus halting negotiations. Talks amongst technical experts are scheduled to resume in advance of the next formal round of negotiations. Similarly, investor-state dispute mechanisms and the proposed sunset clause were not emphasized this round.

With respect to energy, we understand there is agreement to include both a standalone chapter on energy as well as energy related sections in other chapters. The standalone chapter, because it will likely include Mexico unlike certain energy provisions in the current NAFTA, will focus on “more interconnectivity across the networks of energy in North America” and will seek to recognize the changes Mexico has made to allow for foreign investment in its energy sector. 10

Negotiators did close a number of smaller chapters, including regulatory practices, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and telecommunications. Additionally, Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief negotiator, commented that the parties were close to completing sections on technical barriers but required more time on sections regarding the environment.11 While reportedly half of the chapters are between 80-90% settled, Lighthizer commented that only 6 of NAFTA’s 30 chapters have been officially closed.

With respect to the sanitary and phytosanitary chapter that governs food safety, negotiators have settled on a fast-track system that would prioritize requests between the US, Mexico and Canada. This system is a first of its kind in international food safety agreements. Minister Guajardo said the chapter will help facilitate agricultural trade and it “guarantees animal and vegetable sanitation based in science.”12Additionally, sector annexes on proprietary food formulas and chemicals were closed this round. The annex protects the intellectual property of certain mixes and ingredients and allows for more regulatory cooperation for the use of chemicals. 13

The eighth round of NAFTA talks is expected to take place in Washington in April, subject to availability of Ministers who are traveling for other international meetings, including the upcoming Free Trade Area of the Americas summit.14

 

 

FROM: Lexology / Dentons / 19 de marzo de 2018

Energy Reform Could Generate $1T in Foreign Investment for Mexico by 2040

FROM:  Natural Gas Intelligence / Ronald Buchanan / 19 de marzo de 2018

 

Mexico’s energy reform could generate $1 trillion of direct foreign investment by 2040, said leaders of the industry lobby, Mexican Association of Hydrocarbon Companies, earlier this month.

The association, known by its Spanish acronym Amexhi, was presenting its Agenda 2040, a huge volume that reviews the industry’s past, from its origins at the beginning of last century; the present, including current uncertainties; and a future through 2040 that would “transform Mexico.”

Amexhi President Alberto de la Fuente admitted that the investment goal is ambitious.

The Agenda presupposes that power and hydrocarbons would account for  4% of gross domestic product by the target date. And, de la Fuente emphasized, it would require accurate instrumentation of the reform’s precepts, “as well as the resolution of challenges that are a legacy of the previous model.”

The defense of the Agenda would require four watchwords, he added: “Steadfastness, competence, transparency and knowledge.”

Amexhi has taken pains to remain neutral during the current campaigns for Mexico’s July 1 presidential election.

“All the candidates have shown interesting elements in their policy statements,” said Enrique Hidalgo, president of ExxonMobil Exploracion y Produccion Mexico, and the coordinator of Agenda 2040.

Some of the industry group’s sympathizers, however, have claimed that the pronouncements of the current leader in the race, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who helms the left wing nationalist Morena party, has been less than steadfast in support of the reform. They also claim that his proposal for new refineries show a lack of understanding of the industry.

At the moment, the No. 2 in the race is Ricardo Anaya, leader of the National Action Party, the traditionally pro-business PAN. But Anaya has yet to issue any policy statements on energy.

Anaya also has embraced policies of left-wingers with whom he has formed an alliance. With them, he signed a statement of “No to the gasolinazo” — the liberation of gasoline prices.

Running third in the opinion polls is senior technocrat Jose Antonio Meade of the incumbent Institutional Revolutionary Party, the PRI. Meade was hand-picked by President Enrique Pena Nieto.

Meade’s loyalty to the energy reform has not been questioned. However, his loyalty to Peña Nieto has so far placed a political millstone around his neck. Pena Nieto is said to be the most unpopular Mexican president since political opinion polls were first published in the nation late in the 20th century as its democratic era began to dawn.

The democratic dawn has begun late for the former state monopolies of oil and natural gas, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and power, Comision Federal de Electricidad, the CFE.

Neither is free to set a budget, as Congress and the Finance ministry keep a tight grip on their spending. The Pemex and CFE unions, particularly that of Pemex, have corporate powers that go well beyond the defense of the interests of the workers in terms of pay and conditions.

The challenge are considerable, said senior analyst Arturo Carranza of Mexico’s National Institute of Public Administration. But, he added, the rewards are realistic.

Agenda 2040 proposes 15 bid rounds to lease oil and gas acreage. Since the 2013-14 reform was enacted, there have been two rounds featuring eight separate completed lease auctions. Three auctions are currently underway for the third round.

“But the pace has been stepped up and it can be pushed further,” Carranza said. “The country’s potential is beyond question for the industry. And the government has to do its part by identifying opportunities that the companies can grasp. In return, it can reap the benefits, such as royalties, on behalf of the nation.

“At the same time, the government has to cast off the restrictions on the budgets of Pemex and the CFE,” he added.

De la Fuente said at the presentation that about 80% of the nation’s oilfields are currently in decline, “but the best tool that’s available to revert the trend is the energy reform.”

 

 

FROM:  Natural Gas Intelligence / Ronald Buchanan / 19 de marzo de 2018

¿Tomas decisiones en el sector energético? Conoce como estar respaldado.

Tomar decisiones, por lo general, no es un proceso sencillo. Un individuo o un grupo de ellos se enfrenta a múltiples opciones, de cuya elección se derivarán una multiplicidad de consecuencias, que pueden ser positivas, pero también negativas.

En el ámbito empresarial, generalmente las decisiones suelen ser de mayor complejidad porque los efectos no se limitan a la persona que está tomando las decisiones, sino a toda la empresa y aún más, posiblemente a parte de la economía de un país, o bien, a un conjunto de la población. En resumen, pueden afectar a terceros.

En esta ocasión nos referiremos específicamente a las empresas que están participando en la Reforma Energética de México como contratistas petroleros. ¿Qué tipo de decisiones están tomando? ¿Qué implicaciones pueden tener en el corto, mediano y largo plazo? ¿Qué podría suceder si toman malas decisiones? ¿Hay alguna forma de proteger al directivo que, sin dolo, tomó una decisión que derivó en efectos negativos?

Quizá la primera gran decisión que realizan las empresas del sector energético es participar en los procesos de licitación organizados por la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos y llegar a convertirse en contratistas petroleros. Pero ¿qué pasa si ganaron un campo que no es tan rentable como esperaban? ¿Y si en determinado momento se ven imposibilitados de cumplir con el Programa Mínimo de Trabajo? ¿Qué pasa si se presentó un siniestro y el monto del seguro contratado es insuficiente o las coberturas no son las adecuadas?

No debemos olvidar que el Contrato de Exploración y Extracción menciona en sus primeras páginas que se firma considerando que el riesgo corre total y exclusivamente a cargo del contratista, por lo que las consecuencias que podrían presentarse ante los casos antes mencionados como baja rentabilidad, problemas financieros o incumplimientos ante proveedores serán a exclusivo costo y riesgo del contratista.

Las decisiones generalmente se toman en el seno de un Consejo de Administración. Si fallan, es posible que tengan que asumir responsabilidades ante terceros y que tengan que responder incluso con su patrimonio personal.

Para evitarlo, los miembros de un Consejo de Administración y los directivos pueden estar asegurados con un seguro de responsabilidad civil conocido como D & O (Directors & Officers), que otorga respaldo frente a decisiones que comprometan a la empresa frente a terceros.

Su cobertura abarca los gastos de defensa y costas judiciales ante una reclamación o las posibles indemnizaciones.

Es importante destacar que se trata de un seguro que ampara específicamente al individuo, es decir a la persona que funja como directivo o como miembro del consejo de administración.

D&O es un seguro con el que todo aquel que tome decisiones en un Consejo de Administración o un directivo, debe contar para estar protegido frente a reclamaciones de terceros que pudieran derivar en una afectación patrimonial individual.

En NRGI Broker, somos expertos en seguros para las empresas del sector energético. Acércate a nosotros, con gusto te atenderemos.

 

Desarrollo de negocios en las áreas de exploración y extracción de hidrocarburos

La Reforma Energética generó un abanico de posibilidades para el desarrollo de negocios relacionados con los hidrocarburos y petrolíferos.

La punta de lanza para la generación de nuevos negocios se encuentra en la exploración y extracción de hidrocarburos, donde se requiere la participación de empresas preparadas para extender sus servicios y de otras dispuestas a innovar para satisfacer los requerimientos de los contratistas petroleros.

En el primer grupo podemos mencionar, por ejemplo, a las empresas dedicadas a la perforación que si bien, previamente ya venían desarrollando estas funciones, ahora lo harán de forma más intensiva ante la multiplicidad de campos que ya se encuentran en las etapas de exploración o extracción.

En el segundo grupo, se encuentran las empresas que incursionan en áreas novedosas, como pueden ser los sistemas de información, bases de datos, así como desarrollo de software para necesidades específicas del sector.

En la era tecnológica que vivimos, estas áreas de negocio adquieren especial importancia, dado que pueden ofrecer soluciones reales a las empresas que incursionan en la Reforma Energética.

Un buen ejemplo es la medición de los hidrocarburos para la transferencia de custodia, que están obligadas a realizar las empresas para determinar las contraprestaciones al Estado. Se trata de una actividad que  requiere de mucha precisión por lo que es necesario recurrir a sistemas de última tecnología que satisfagan esta necesidad y evitar controversias entre las autoridades y el contratista respecto a su confiabilidad.

Actualmente, uno de los sistemas más utilizados es el SCADA, acrónimo de Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition, consistente en un software para el control y la supervisión de procesos automáticos a distancia; provee información y permite su gestión.

Es importante mencionar que ya sea que se trate de empresas del primero o segundo grupo que aquí hemos mencionado, todas se consideran proveedores de las empresas contratistas u operadoras del Sector Hidrocarburos y, por lo tanto, podemos afirmar que participan del “riesgo” que tienen implícito las operaciones en este sector.

Por lo anterior, están obligados a contar con un seguro que ampare la responsabilidad por daños a terceros que se causen por las actividades en las que participan.

La contratación de estos seguros es sencilla y expedita. En NRGI Broker somos expertos en seguros para los proveedores del sector hidrocarburos. Acércate a nosotros, con gusto te atenderemos.

 

Mexico Economy Minister: NAFTA Must Remain Trilateral Accord

FROM: Voa News / Reuters / 3 de marzo de 2018

MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo on Tuesday rejected making a bilateral trade treaty with the United States, saying the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is currently being renegotiated, must remain a three-country accord.

On Monday, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said time to rework the deal was running “very short” and again raised the possibility of the United States pursuing bilateral deals with its partners, while stressing that Washington would prefer a three-way agreement.

NAFTA “has to be a trilateral accord, given the conditions of integration in North America,” Guajardo said in an interview with the Televisa network on Tuesday. “It must be that way.”

Lighthizer said on Monday that Mexico’s presidential election and the looming expiry of a congressional negotiating authorization in July puts the onus on the United States, Mexico and Canada to come up with a plan soon.

The latest round of talks have been clouded, however, by U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to launch metals tariffs. On Monday, Trump tweeted that “tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed.”

Guajardo said on Tuesday that if the U.S. government were to push ahead with metals tariffs that included Mexico, the country would be forced to respond with politically targeted tit-for-tat responses.

“There’s a list (of U.S. products) that we are analyzing internally, but we won’t make it public, we’re going to wait,” Guajardo said.

He also said that in a meeting in Washington last week, in which he met Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, he told the U.S. official that Mexico should not be included in the proposed tariffs.

“We’re allies in national security … our industries are highly integrated, we buy more (U.S.) steel than we sell, and so there’s no point in shooting oneself in the foot,” he said.

 

 

FROM: Voa News / Reuters / 3 de marzo de 2018

Mexico Energy Reform Slowdown Would Be ‘A Shame,’ Pemex CEO Says

FROM: Bloomberg / Adam Williams / 7 de marzo de 2018

Mexico’s 2013 decision to end the government monopoly on energy has resulted in billions in investment and the arrival of dozens of international oil companies.

Carlos Trevino, Petroleos Mexicanos’s new chief executive officer, thinks it would be unfortunate for that to be interrupted by the next administration.

The top concern of Trevino, who took over at Pemex in November, is that Mexico will elect a president in July that will “slow down the energy reform pace,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the CERAWeek by IHS Markit event in Houston.

“Someone who doesn’t believe in the energy reform may reduce the speed very much and I think that would be a shame in Mexico,” Trevino said. “The energy reform has a lot of benefits to the country, to the people, so the the worst case scenario in my point of view is that the speed that we are implementing the energy reform will be reduced.”

Trevino’s concern matches that of many energy industry leaders in Mexico, which has signed more than 90 oil and gas production contracts with international majors such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. since a landmark 2015 crude auction. Presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who leads polls ahead of the July 1 election, has vowed that his administration will slow the pace of the current oil auctions and review contracts signed by the current government.

A reversal or significant modification to the overhaul would be “almost impossible because to change the energy reform you will need to change the constitution,” Trevino said. It would require a majority in Mexico’s upper and lower houses and it “is really difficult for any president to have that amount” of support.

“It is possible but improbable,” Trevino said. “We have a lot of certainty on what is going to happen in the future no matter who wins the election.”

Refining partner
Pemex, which has reiterated that partners will improve crude production and refining margins, will formalize a joint-venture agreement with Mitsui & Co. at its flagship refinery this month, Trevino said. The partnership with Mitsui is an estimated $2.6 billion deal that will increase production to help reduce the nation’s reliance on imported fuels.

Pemex also expects to sign at least one additional refinery partnership as soon as this summer, Trevino said, without providing additional details. The company continues to seek partners for refinery auxiliary services in areas such as power generation, water treatment and steam generation, he said.

he partnership with Mitsui is an estimated $2.6 billion deal that will increase production to help reduce the nation’s reliance on imported fuels.

Pemex also expects to sign at least one additional refinery partnership as soon as this summer, Trevino said, without providing additional details. The company continues to seek partners for refinery auxiliary services in areas such as power generation, water treatment and steam generation, he said.

The company’s Salina Cruz refinery, which was offline for several months last year following a series of natural disasters, is operating at half of its capacity, processing around 150,000 daily barrels, according to Trevino. Pemex’s Madero refinery, which is in the process of a restart, is currently processing between 60,000 and 80,000 barrels, he said. The Madero refinery, which has the capacity to process 190,000 barrels per day, should ramp up to normal rates at the end of the month.

Oil Auctions
Pemex, which won rights to develop four deep water areas in Mexico’s Jan. 31 auction, is going to bid for a few block in the March 27 tender of 35 shallow water zones, he said. Pemex would prefer to bid in partnerships but is willing to go it alone if need be, Trevino said.

The company, which launched its own oil hedge last year to safeguard against a potential price drop, will continue the program next year, Trevino said.

 

 

FROM: Bloomberg / Adam Williams / 7 de marzo de 2018