U.S. turns up pressure on Canada to loosen grip on dairy industry in NAFTA talks

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Calgary Herald / The Canadian Press / September 11

 

WASHINGTON — Canada’s foreign affairs minister says Tuesday’s anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States should serve as a reminder of the deep ties between the two countries as they haggle over the future of North American free trade.

Chrystia Freeland underlined the anniversary at the start of another day of trade talks aimed at breaking an impasse on a renewed North American Free Trade Agreement.

The renegotiation of the 24-year-old NAFTA, which also includes Mexico and is integral to the continent’s economy, has dragged on for 13 months.

The in-person, high-level negotiations got back underway as events marking the 17th anniversary of the 2001 attacks took place around the U.S., including at the Pentagon with Vice President Mike Pence, not far from where the trade meetings are taking place.

Freeland said the memorials should help to add some context to the ongoing negotiations on free trade that were started at Trump’s behest.

“Maybe that helps us all put into perspective the negotiations that we’re having — and also put into a little bit of historical perspective the importance and the significance of the relationship between Canada and the United States,” Freeland told reporters outside the offices of her counterpart, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

“At the end of the day we’re neighbours, and at the end of the day, neighbours help each other when they need help.”

Freeland and Lighthizer left the bargaining table Friday without a deal following two weeks of negotiations. She said she spoke with Lighthizer over the weekend and they agreed it would be useful for them to meet again face to face.

“The conversations over the weekend continued to be constructive and productive,” she said.

Freeland will spend Tuesday in the U.S. capital before she heads to Saskatoon to attend Liberal caucus meetings that begin later in the day and run through Thursday.

Lighthizer spent Monday in Brussels for trade discussions with the European Union — preliminary talks that are scheduled to resume later this fall.

Ottawa and Washington are trying to reach an agreement that could be submitted to the U.S. Congress by month’s end. A deal would see Canada join a preliminary trade agreement the Trump administration struck last month with Mexico.

The two sides have so far been unable to resolve their differences over U.S. access to the Canadian dairy market, a cultural exemption for Canada and the Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism.

A Canadian source with knowledge of the NAFTA discussions says an agreement is within reach, but getting there will require flexibility from all sides.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during an interview Tuesday with a Winnipeg radio station, CJOB, that there are certain positions Canada has and remain firm on. But he said the Liberals plan to be flexible on other issues in order to get a deal.

“It’s time to update this deal after 25 years. We’re just going to stay working constructively to get to that win, win, win that we know is there,” he said in the interview.

There is another wild card in Washington: hurricane Florence, a monster Category 4 storm that’s bearing down on the U.S. east coast and is sure to make its presence felt in the national capital area later in the week.

 

Calgary Herald / The Canadian Press / September 11

 

Mexico oil production to reach 2.6 mil b/d by 2025: Lopez Obrador

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S&P Globals Platts / Wendy Wells / Daniel Rodríguez / September 11

 

Mexico City — Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Sunday he plans to focus on developing and exploring onshore and shallow water areas under the control of state oil company Pemex to boost the country’s oil production.

“We have a projection, and our plan is to have production of at least 2.6 million b/d by the end of the presidential term; additional production of 800,000 b/d,” Lopez Obrador said in webcast press conference.

Lopez Obrador was speaking to journalists after a meeting with Mexican drilling and oil service companies at Villahermosa in Tabasco.

Mexico’s production averaged 1.8 million b/d in July, down from an historical high of 3.4 million b/d in 2004, latest data from Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission showed.

Lopez Obrador said the incoming administration plans to tender drilling contracts in December when his six-year term begins to develop Pemex’s shallow water and inland areas to boost oil production. “We are inviting all companies to participate in these tenders. However, we will have a preference over domestic contractors,” he added.

He said he planned to add Peso 75 billion ($3.9 billion) to Pemex’s exploration and production budget to boost drilling and thus raise output. The tenders will help Mexico reverse its production downtrend by the end of 2019, he added.

Mexico’s oil industry is at a crisis as a result of low public investment in the sector. Pemex in 2017 had an E&P capital expenditure budget of Peso 81.5 billion, down from Peso 222 billion in 2014, the company’s annual financial statements show. The cut in Pemex’s budget resulted in a significant decrease in drilling activity; it drilled 83 wells in 2017, compared with 705 in 2013.

Lopez Obrador blamed the previous administration for Pemex’s lower capital expenditure, claiming it was done on purpose amid expectations the private sector would offset lower activity from the state company. “It has been a complete failure, this wrongly named energy reform,” Lopez Obrador said

The president-elect has historically been an opponent of private participation in Mexico’s energy sector. His critics note Pemex’s spending cuts reflect lower global oil prices after 2014.

The president-elect neither mentioned the long-term nature of the energy sector nor the advances made by Eni at Amoca, PanAmerica with Hotchi and Talos with Zama, where peak production across the three fields could be above 250,000 b/d.

Analysts also point out that Lopez Obrador does not acknowledge that it has been a challenge for Mexico to replace production from the aging Cantarell super field, which produced 2.1 million b/d in 2003 and but 160,000 b/d in July.

Mexico won’t call for new hydrocarbon auction rounds until all 107 contracts awarded to date under the energy reform are reviewed for corruption, Lopez Obrador said.

“The majority aren’t working, there is no investment, but those 107 contracts don’t include all the oil regions in the country, just a fraction of Mexico’s hydrocarbon potential,” he added.

The president-elect did not indicate when this contract review process could conclude. Currently, Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission is organizing two gas-rich auction rounds, which are expected to be awarded in February.

The commission postponed both auctions as well as a Pemex’s auction to farm out seven onshore clusters in southern Mexico from this summer until the coming year, citing a request from the industry for more time to analyze the areas as well as the opportunity to involve the incoming administration in the process.

Lopez Obrador said the state owns all of Mexico’s oil resources, and has greater control over areas that have not yet been assigned. “The greater majority of our oil potential is still under the control of Pemex,” he added.

 

S&P Globals / Wendy Wells / Daniel Rodríguez / September 11

 

AGRICULTURE, ECONOMY, GDP, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, TRADE WARS Last week in economy: Indian rupee slides while US dollar stabilizes after Trump secures Mexico trade deal

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Qrius / Pavas Gupta / September 3

 

Last week heralded further woes for the Indian economy as the rupee touched its lowest-ever-level of 71 against the dollar. At the same time, GDP forecasts stood at an all-time-high of 8.2% in 2018-19’s Q1. On the other side of the world, the US and China agreed to overhaul the NAFTA deal, bringing relief to the dollar. Read on to know more about what’s been up in the economy, outside and at home:

Indian Rupee slides to record-low at 71 against the greenback

On Friday, the rupee hit an all-time-low at 71 against the US dollar. The primary reason identified behind the drastic drop is persistent demand for the dollar amid rising crude oil prices. This is further reinforced by weak exchange rates of almost all Asian peers of the rupee. Per Forex dealers, the dollar’s strength against its rival currencies on expectations of rising interest rates amid lingering Sino-US trade tensions also weighed on the Indian fiat. To add to all these factors is the growing fear about rising inflation and consistent outflow of foreign funds from the domestic equity market.

“[The] Indian rupee has depreciated around 11 per cent year to date. Higher crude oil prices, demand from defence and oil marketing firms have contributed to the latest bout of weakness. Rupee was overvalued on trade weighted real effective exchange rate. Robust FDI flows in e-commerce companies, healthy forex reserves may limit the downside of the rupee”, said VK Sharma, Head Private Client Group & Capital Market Strategy, HDFC Securities.

US dollar steady post US-Mexico agreement to overhaul trade deal

After the United States and Mexico agreed to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), volatility in the dollar cooled down; the currency is now steady against the euro and a basket of other major currencies. The overhauling of the deal brought optimism amidst global trade tensions.

The agreement to overhaul NAFTA exerted pressure on Canada to consent to new terms with the aim of preserving a three-nation pact.

“[The deal] would be positive for the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, these currencies that have been sold on the back of higher trade tensions,”, said Shusuke Yamada, currency and equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. “Overall, that would be negative for the Japanese yen and the US dollar. That’s positive for the risk assets in general,” he added.

On Tuesday, following two sessions of losses, the dollar index, which gauges the fiat’s performance against six other currencies, fell nearly flat. Later, it edged 0.05% higher to 94.834, making up for the earlier losses.

Ever since it hit a high on August 15, the dollar has fallen more than 2%. This comes amidst US President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates while the US government attempted to boost the economy.

India poised to become world’s fifth-largest economy in 2019

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, on Thursday, said that India is expected to outstrip Britain to don the title of the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2019.

“This year, in terms of size, we have overtaken France. Next year we are likely to overtake Britain. Therefore, we will be the fifth largest [economy],” he asserted. Further, he said that the other economies of the world were growing at a much slower rate, adding that India had the potential to rank among the top three economies of the world within a span of 10-20 years.

India’s GDP growth at 8.2% in Q1 of 2018-19

In the first quarter of the 2018-19 fiscal year, ending June 30, India’s economy performed at an impressive rate of 8.2%. This marks India’s highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2016. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was backed by a strong core performance and a healthy base.

These growth figures will be factored in by the monetary policy committee at its next review, which is scheduled for October 3-5.

The sectors of the economy that registered a growth of over 7% include ‘manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’, and ‘public administration, defence and other services’.

Foodgrain output to reach new heights in 2017-18

Foodgrain production in India is expected to grown to an all-time-high of 284.83 million tonnes in the 2017-18 crop year, which ended in June. According to the Agriculture Ministry, this burst in output is fuelled by record production of wheat, rice, coarse cereals and pulses after a normal monsoon cycle.

The previous record was pegged at 275.11 million tonnes, in the 2016-17 crop year.

In the Ministry’s fourth advance estimate released on Tuesday, it revised, in the upward direction, the total foodgrain production by 5.3 million tonnes from the earlier projection of 279.51 million tonnes for the current crop year.

“As a result of near normal rainfall during monsoon 2017 and various policy initiatives taken by the government, the country has witnessed record foodgrain production in 2017-18,” the ministry said in a statement.

 

Qrius / Pavas Gupta / September 3

 

U.S. oil prices rise as Gulf platforms shut ahead of hurricane

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Reuters / Henning Gloystein / September 3

 

* Storm Gordon to make U.S. landfall as hurricane

* Brent dips as India takes steps to continue Iran imports

* Global oil markets have tightened since 2017 – Barclays

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 4 (Reuters) – U.S. oil prices edged up on Tuesday, rising back past $70 per barrel, after two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms were evacuated in preparation for a hurricane.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $70.04 per barrel at 0034 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent from their last settlement.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane.

International Brent crude futures, by contrast, lost ground, trading at $78.10 per barrel, down 5 cents from their last close.

This came as India allowed state refiners to import Iranian oil if Tehran arranges and insures tankers.

Many international shippers have stopped loading Iranian oil as U.S. financial sanctions against Tehran prevents them from insuring its cargoes.

Mirroring a step by China, where buyers are shifting nearly all their Iranian oil imports to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC), this means that Asia’s two biggest oil importers are making plans to continue Iran purchases despite pressure by Washington to cut orders.

CHANGING MARKET

Britain’s Barclays bank said on Tuesday that oil markets had changed since 2017 when worries about rising supply were more evident.

“U.S. producers are resisting temptation and exercising capital discipline, OPEC and Russia have convinced market participants they are managing the supply of over half of global production, the U.S. is using sanctions more actively, and several key OPEC producers are at risk of being failed states,” Barclays said.

Crude oil “prices could reach $80 and higher in the short term”, the bank said, although it added that despite these developments global supply may exceed demand next year.

For 2020, Barclays said it expects Brent to average $75 per barrel, up from its previous forecast of just $55 a barrel.

French bank BNP Paribas struck a similar tone, warning of “supply issues” for the rest of the year and into 2019.

“Crude oil export losses from Iran due to U.S. sanctions, production decline in Venezuela and episodic outages in Libya are unlikely to be offset entirely by corresponding rises in OPEC+ production due to market share sensitivities,” the bank said.

“We do not expect oil demand to be materially impacted in the next 6-9 months by economic uncertainty linked to U.S./China trade tensions and recent concerns over emerging markets,” he added.

BNP Paribas expects Brent to average $79 per barrel in 2019.

 

Reuters / Henning Gloystein / September 3

 

Oil industry encouraged by Trump’s trade deal with Mexico

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Washington Examiner/ John Siciliano / August 27

 

President Trump’s announcement with Mexico on Monday is being taken as an encouraging sign by the U.S. oil and natural gas industry.

“We are encouraged that negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement to modernize our trade relationships,” said Mike Sommers, the new president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry’s top lobbyist in Washington.

“America’s natural gas and oil industry depends on trade to continue to grow U.S. jobs and our economy, and deliver for consumers,” he added.

Trump announced Monday morning that progress had been made toward a deal with Mexico on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. Negotiations with Canada, the final piece in the agreement, are still ongoing.

Trump called it a “big day for trade” and the nation in an Oval Office announcement in which he teleconferenced with outgoing Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.

Energy has been a key aspect of the negotiations on a revamped version of NAFTA. However, no announcement on energy trade was made on Monday. The agreement with Mexico centered on ensuring that a higher percentage of automobiles sold in North America are made with parts produced on the continent.

Negotiations on an update to the free trade agreement had stalled in recent months amid disagreements over, among other things, provisions related to the automotive and energy industries. U.S. and Mexican negotiators, however, had made breakthroughs on those issues ahead of Monday’s announcement.

Jesus Seade, the incoming Mexican government’s chief NAFTA negotiator, said Sunday the energy issues have been “ironed out,” without going into detail, Reuters reported.

Mexico has become a large importer of U.S. natural gas and oil in recent years. Energy Secretary Rick Perry had visited Mexico ahead of Monday’s announcement. He was there to discuss “how the U.S. and Mexico can continue to work together to make North America a world-wide leader in energy production and exports,” Perry said last week in a tweet.

 

Washington Examiner/ John Siciliano / August 27

 

Trump deal with Mexico eases fears of trade wars, offers template to end other conflicts

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Market Watch / Jeffry Barthash / August 27

 

That sound of ice thawing? It’s the Trump administration’s tentative deal with Mexico to rewrite the controversial Nafta free-trade pact, the first clear evidence the White House is willing to compromise on its hardline demands and avert ruinous trade wars.

News of the deal sent U.S. markets surging Monday. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP, +0.17%  topped 8,000 points and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.06%  index almost hit 2,900, both touching record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA, +0.15%   jumped nearly 260 points to surpass 26,000.

Details of the pending agreement are sketchy for now. Senior White House officials suggested the new pact would result in more new cars and trucks being made in the U.S. using steel and other materials produced in North America. That was one of President Donald Trump’s chief goals.

Other key provisions could lead to higher wages for Mexican auto workers and even give them greater rights to unionize, moves meant to reduce the incentive for U.S. automakers to shift operations south of the border due to lower labor costs.

The new agreement also puts greater emphasis on crafting rules to govern the “digital economy” and protect copyrights and intellectual-property rights, areas in which the U.S. is a global leader.

“I think this is an extremely historic time,” said Robert Lighthizer, the chief U.S. trade negotiator, in a call with reporters. “We had a Nafta agreement that got seriously out of whack … and needed modern updating.”

A deal is far from done, of course. Canada is the third country that was party to the original North American Free Trade Agreement signed in 1994, but negotiations have been at a standstill. The White House hopes Canada will now rejoin the talks and quickly join with the U.S. and Mexico to ratify a successor agreement to Nafta.

“We hope that Canada can join in now,” Lighthizer told reporters Monday. Talks are expected to resume soon, and at this point, it’s unlikely that any Nafta successor would be voted upon until the next Congress convenes in early 2019.

The Canadians and no doubt the Europeans and Chinese are likely to comb over the details of the agreement. The U.S. is sure to use the deal with Mexico as a template for negotiations in talks with other countries to update trade rules that Trump has long complained are unfair.

What the Mexico deal also shows, though, is the Trump administration is ready to compromise on some of its toughest demands. The U.S., for instance, dropped its insistence on a hard “sunset” clause that would cause the trade deal to expire after a certain number of years.

“Despite the Trump administration’s intransigence over trade disputes in recent months, it is willing to negotiate in good faith and accept a compromise, which will be welcomed in both China and Europe,” contended Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

The new pact calls for the U.S. and Mexico to review an updated North American free-trade deal six years into a 16-year window. The countries could extend the pact another 16 years at any point after that six-year period.

The U.S. also appears to have softened its demand for an end to an arbitration process for determining if a country was violating the trade agreement. Industries in the U.S. mostly support the current process for resolving problems and lobbied the White House to back off.

Yet even if the agreement is not entirely what the White House wanted, the deal with Mexico allows Trump to claim partial victory for his “America First” policy.

What’s more, the deal will go a long way in easing tensions on Wall Street and in Washington that Trump’s tough talk on trade would ignite a conflagration damaging to economies all around the world.

Major industry lobbying group and trade experts were cautiously optimistic after the White House deal.

It’s “a victory for rationality over rhetoric,” said Steve Nelson, a partner at the law firm Dorsey & Whitney and a former state department lawyer.

 

Market Watch / Jeffry Barthash / August 27

 

 

Mexico’s outgoing President Peña Nieto and President-elect Lopez Obrador vow to work together despite differences

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Los Angeles Times / Patrick J. McDonnell / August 20

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and his once-fierce rival, President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, on Monday pledged cooperation in confronting the nation’s challenges despite differences on issues such as education reform and a controversial airport project.

Peña Nieto and Lopez Obrador — along with many current Cabinet members and the president-elect’s designated ministers — appeared together at the National Palace downtown and stressed themes of mutual respect.

It was the latest in a series of gestures meant to demonstrate stability and continuity as leftist Lopez Obrador prepares to assume power amid pledges for a far-reaching “transformation” of Mexican society. Peña Nieto has faced widespread unpopularity and the perception that he has been an ineffective leader.

“It is an institutional transition but it is also a respectful transition because we have received help without conditions from the constitutional president, Enrique Peña Nieto,” said Lopez Obrador, who won the presidency after losing in the two previous national elections, in 2012 and 2006.

Peña Nieto, in turn, vowed to do all he could to ensure that “the next government begins its term in a successful fashion.”

Lopez Obrador, elected July 1 in a landslide, is scheduled to take office Dec. 1 for a single six-year term. Peña Nieto was not a candidate in the election as Mexican law bars reelection of presidents.

The two men Monday answered a half dozen questions from the press but didn’t veer from differences on a number of contentious issues — notably national education reform and a planned new multibillion dollar airport for Mexico City.

Lopez Obrador reiterated his vow to review the controversial airport plan — critics say it is too expensive and not needed — and to rescind the current administration’s education overhaul blueprint. The president-elect has said he will seek out views from all sectors on how to improve the nation’s moribund public education system and what to do about the airport proposal.

Education reform was a centerpiece of Peña Nieto’s administration, but it drew fierce criticism from teachers opposed to revised rules to evaluate teacher performance. The new airport, already under construction, was the major infrastructure project of the outgoing administration.

Lopez Obrador and Peña Nieto met July 3, two days after the election, but that was a one-on-one meeting before Lopez Obrador had been legally declared president-elect.

Despite many preelection fears of an economic slide after a Lopez Obrador victory, Mexico’s economy has remained stable and the peso has retained its value against the U.S. dollar and other currencies. The incoming president has vowed to revitalize the sluggish Mexican economy, but has provided few specifics beyond a broad anti-corruption push.

Since election day, Lopez Obrador has generally toned down his often fiery rhetoric— he campaigned relentlessly against what he labeled “mafia of power,” including Peña Nieto’s administration — and has met repeatedly with investors and business interests.

The president-elect has also reached out to Washington and said he would invite President Trump to his inauguration.

U.S.-Mexico relations have experienced turbulence since Trump took office and repeatedly criticized Mexico and Mexicans.

Negotiations are continuing between the United States, Mexico and Canada in crafting a new North American Free Trade Agreement, the three-nation accord that has governed commerce on the continent for almost a quarter century. Trump has assailed the pact as unfair to U.S. interests.

The free-trade regimen is a cornerstone of the Mexican economy. Almost 80% of the nation’s exports go to the United States. Peña Nieto and Lopez Obrador have voiced support for a new trade accord.

Lopez Obrador, who ran on a leftist populist campaign vowing fundamental change, won 53% of the vote, defeating his nearest challenger by more than 30 percentage points. He has vowed to increase social-welfare payments to the poor, make higher education available to all and eliminate deep-rooted corruption.

Lopez Obrador is the first Mexican president to take office with a majority vote since 1988, during the days of dominance by the country’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI.

The PRI’s more than seven-decade hold on the presidency ended in 2000, with the election of Vicente Fox of the right-of-center National Action Party. But Lopez Obrador is the first avowed leftist and first contender from a non-traditional party to be elected president in the 21st century.

Peña Nieto is the current standard-bearer for the PRI, which suffered a humiliating defeat in the July 1 elections.

Lopez Obrador is among a number of left-leaning politicians who abandoned the PRI starting in the late 1980s. Lopez Obrador ran under the banner of his own party, the National Regeneration Movement, known as Morena, which is 4 years old.

Morena — which includes many defectors from the PRI and other traditional parties— not only won the presidency, but garnered major majorities in both chambers of the national legislature.

Despite his party’s newfound dominance at the federal level, Lopez Obrador has repeatedly vowed to run a democratic administration and to reach out to all sectors.

“This government is going to represent all Mexicans,” Lopez Obrador said Monday. “No one will be on the margins of the law or above the law.”

Cecilia Sanchez of The Times’ Mexico City bureau contributed to this report.

Los Angeles Times / Patrick J. McDonnell / August 20

 

Is Mexico Set To Boost Oil Output?

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Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

 

On July 27, Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador said his government will earmark more than $9 billion for state-run energy companies next year and start working on a new oil refinery in southern Mexico. The moves seek to reduce reliance on fuel imports from the United States while boosting the country’s oil production, which has significantly fallen off in recent years. López Obrador did not say how he would fund his proposals, an omission that worries analysts concerned about Pemex’s already heavy debt burden. He also announced Octavio Romero Oropeza as the incoming head of Pemex. Will the promised investment help accelerate Pemex’s oil and gas production? What else is needed to boost output? How well prepared is Romero Oropeza to lead Pemex, and what should his priorities be? Four Mexican energy experts weighed in with their opinions on these developments.

George Baker, publisher of Mexico Energy Intelligence in Houston: The 116-page energy sector document that the Morena transition team issued on July 10 sports both good and bad ideas. First, among the good ideas, is advocating independent unions in the oil sector (the first time since 1935 that a political party has done this). Second is suspending until further review the so-called farm-outs of Pemex—the idea that civil servants (Pemex employees) and market-disciplined managers of oil companies can have a joint venture based on sharing risk and reward only makes sense on paper. Third is promoting the concept of intelligent cities, including low energy consumption, renewable energy and intelligent grids. A fourth good idea is expanding the grid of natural gas pipelines and the use of renewable energy sources and cogeneration. Among the bad ideas: first is reactivating the refinery project in Tula and analyzing the construction of another refinery in the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex refinery upgrades have gone badly for the past 20 years, notably in Cadereyta, Villahermosa and Tula. A new refinery could take three years just for design and another three for contracting and financing. López Obrador would likely leave office before the first shovelful of earth was turned for the new refinery. Second is the upgrade of the role of Pemex in the energy space. The Morena team proposes to eliminate the so-called ‘asymmetrical regulations’ that restrict Pemex to compete effectively—to aspire to ‘make Pemex great again’ as a state agency is to ignore global success stories of state oil companies with mixed-equity structures, market financing and professional management. Finally, a third bad idea is to overstate (and obfuscate) the potential for change via public policy: there is nothing that is actionable in statements such as ‘the necessary investments in Pemex should be made,’ or ‘efforts to increase exploration and production of natural gas should be made to favor the petrochemical industry,’ or ‘deepen and coordinate all efforts to eliminate the black market in petroleum products.’ Notably, one word that does not appear in the text is ‘corruption,’ an unexpected omission by a candidate that vowed to end corruption by example. Finally, former Pemex director general Adrián Lajous recently calculated the average tenure of a director general as two years and four months. Pemex, legally configured as an agency of the federal government, always has a dozen cooks in its kitchen of corporate governance. If a director general had the authority to order early retirement for 35,000 Pemex unionized workers, there would be opportunities for leadership.

David Shields, independent energy consultant based in Mexico City: In a previous comment for the Energy Advisor on June 15, I mentioned that President-elect López Obrador’s energy team has excellent, progressive plans in renewable energy. Sadly, the same does not apply to conventional energy. The naming of Octavio Romero and Manuel Bartlett to head state-run Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has been severely criticized because of their hardline political, ideological, non-technical, non-business nature. They may be okay for rooting out corruption, but they add to fears that recent energy reforms may be rolled back, even if they and López Obrador himself deny legal amendments will be made. Congress will ultimately decide on this, and the outlook there is bad. Reforms can be reversed in practice, anyway, just through day-to-day opposition. López Obrador says he will push oil output up sharply to 2.5 million barrels per day, but reserves and reservoirs are largely depleted, there are no new discoveries, and there is not enough money for a vast exploration effort. Foreign operators will need several years to develop their projects. His best bet for ramping up output quickly would be fracking, but he promises to prohibit that, thinking that environmental risks will be greater than the benefits. His refining plans are unrealistic, too. López Obrador´s native Tabasco State offers the wrong site and the wrong logistics for a large-scale refinery to be built in just three years. Such a project normally requires two years to study, plan and tender, then another five or six years to build. Even then, it can hardly be profitable if Mexico produces and processes only very heavy crude. Intentions to rescue Pemex and reduce reliance on energy imports are good, but the prospects are not.

 

Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

 

US putting ‘final details’ into Mexico trade deal, Trump economic adviser says

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Fox Business / Julia Limitone / August 13

 

Kevin Hassett on trade negotiations with Mexico

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett on the Trump administration’s efforts to renegotiate U.S. trade deals.

Days after President Trump touted trade negotiations with Mexico – White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said on Monday negotiators from the U.S. and Mexico are “very, very close” to a deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“The team has been working overtime, late nights, going through what I would almost characterize as the final details,” he told “Mornings with Maria.”

While Hassett stayed tight-lipped on details, Trump tweeted on Friday that a deal with the U.S.’ third-largest trading partner – after China and Canada – is “coming along nicely” and any deal must take care of autoworkers and farmers.

“You should stay tuned because right now it’s closer than it’s been since I’ve been here,” Hassett, a former resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who was appointed as Trump’s chief economist in early 2017, added.

Fox Business / Julia Limitone / August 13

Mexico and U.S. studying NAFTA rules of origin proposals – minister

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REUTERS / Adriana Barrera / August 6

 

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Monday the country has put forward a proposal to update the North American Free Trade Agreement’s contentious rules of origin, and in turn was studying the U.S. position.

The United States has demanded tougher rules of origin, particularly on what percentage of a car needs to be built in the NAFTA region to avoid tariffs than outlined in the current trade deal.

“We have a proposal on the table, we’re analyzing some characteristics of the U.S. position, and we’re doing it clearly in line with our dialogue with Mexico’s auto industry,” Guajardo told reporters after an event in Mexico City.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who launched the renegotiation of the 1994 pact a year ago, has said he wants the reworked deal to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

Guajardo on Monday also said that Canada, which is not participating in U.S.-Mexico talks that began in Washington two weeks ago after months of negotiations between the three trade partners, could join next week, depending on progress in the next few days between Mexico and the United States.

The bilateral meetings have yielded important developments, Guajardo said, adding that he will return to Washington midweek. He did not give details.

Mexican sources briefed on the negotiations have said Mexico has offered to raise the threshold for regional content beyond a May proposal of 70 percent, up from the current level of 62.5 percent. The United States is seeking 75 percent as well as demanding a proportion of vehicles be made in factories paying $16 an hour or more.

Mexico’s El Economista financial newspaper on Monday reported that Mexico had agreed to those demands, in return for a five-year transition period. Asked about the reports, Mexico’s chief trade negotiator Kenneth Smith said that no deal on autos had yet been reached.

“We haven’t closed or resolved this chapter yet,” Smith told reporters after the same event in Mexico City, saying that Canada also needed to take part before negotiators could reach final decisions.

Smith said Mexico and the United States were discussing technical details and each other’s proposals involving the auto sector, and that Mexico was explaining the areas it considered particularly sensitive.

He also said Mexico would not budge on its rejection of U.S. bids for seasonal restrictions on fresh products or a sunset clause that could strike down NAFTA agreements after five years.

 

REUTERS / Adriana Barrera / August 6