Amlo and the realities of Mexico’s oil reform

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Petroleum Economist / Craig Guthrie / July 9

 

The Mexican president-elect needs a strong oil and gas sector to fund a promised social transformation

The investor-friendly tone Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, widely known as Amlo, struck in the run-up to his landslide victory on 1 July is fueling confidence he will tweak rather than dismantle the energy reforms that are enticing international oil companies to the country.

Prospects of an Amlo presidency had stirred concerns among investors for months ahead of the vote—he’s the first leftist Mexican president since the 1930s, and has forged an anti-elitist platform calling for a reordering of the political landscape. And yet the peso gained more than 2% against the US dollar in the hours after the result.

“This can be a presidency ruled by reason and legality,” Ixchel Castro, manager of Latin American oils and refining markets research with Wood Mackenzie, tells Petroleum Economist, while pointing to the currency market’s reaction and the links he’s built with Mexican business elites. “There may be change in the emphasis of the energy reforms, but we see a reversal as highly unlikely”.

Launched by outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto in 2013, the reforms ended Pemex’s 75-year monopoly over the energy sector. So far, auctions in January and March jointly lured at least $100bn in oil exploration investment commitments from more than 70 different firms—useful revenue for a president who has promised sweeping social changes to tackle crime, corruption and poverty.

Amlo made opposition to the reforms a bedrock of his failed 2013 presidential bid, and told a rally just four months ago that he would never allow Mexican crude to return to the hands of foreigners. But a reversal in tack since has seen his top business adviser and nominee for chief of staff, Alfonso Romo, lead a pro-business public relations drive towards international investors.

Romo told Reuters on 25 June that there could be more auctions of oil drilling rights, as long as a review of contracts that have already been awarded to private companies showed no problems. “We will revise them and everything good will remain,” he said, noting that Amlo had said this directly to investors in New York.

But it’s not expected to be all smooth sailing for foreign oil investment under Amlo’s watch. Uncertainty over the long-term goals of his populist agenda will likely continue to unnerve companies looking to establish a steady pipeline of projects.

“Amlo will likely enjoy the benefits from the existing contracts that have been awarded, especially in terms of oil barrels produced, fiscal revenue received and jobs created. By the third year of his administration he can claim that Mexico is producing more oil under his presidency,” Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre wrote in an e-mail.

“But he will be reluctant to continue the bidding rounds. The one possible exception that I see would be in deep waters and in farm-outs from Pemex.”

Mexico plans to auction 37 onshore areas and nine in the shale gas-rich Burgos Basin on 27 September, as well as the farm-out of seven onshore areas with Pemex on 31 October.

Amlo’s approach to a planned re-shaping of Pemex is seen as the next critical indicator of his eventual intentions on the country’s energy direction.

While the president has pledged to resurrect Pemex into a strong national oil company through cost-cutting, this comes amid a significant decline in domestic energy production—from 3.4m barrels of oil a day in 2004 to 1.9m b/d in 2018.

“Pemex must be forced to compete in order to become stronger,” said Wood. “If the reform process is stopped, Pemex would gain from a strengthening of its position in the short-term. But in the long term its competitiveness and productivity could be severely damaged.”

 

Petroleum Economist / Craig Guthrie / July 9

 

 

The security policy in the hydrocarbons sector

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The safety policy of the hydrocarbon sector focuses on two concepts that respond to the environment that may be impacted by the activities developed with hydrocarbons and their derivatives: industrial safety that refers to the external environment and the relationship of the installation with third parties and operational security, referred to the internal scope and related to the installation’s own processes.

In the ASEA Law, Industrial Safety is defined as the multidisciplinary area responsible for identifying, reducing, evaluating, preventing, mitigating, controlling and managing risks in the sector, with the aim of protecting people and the environment.

Operational safety, is understood as the multidisciplinary area that is responsible for the analysis, evaluation, prevention, mitigation, control of the associated risks of the process, which includes the design, construction, startup, operation, normal stoppages, emergency stoppages and maintenance.

As we can see, industrial safety is a broader concept that involves considering not only the installation but its environment, at least where their activities may have some impact, such as the surrounding population, which may suffer damage to their people and to their assets, or the pollution of the environment.

On the other hand, operational safety focuses on internal processes, which must also be procured, in order to avoid damage to the installation and personnel, as well as preventing an accident from reaching greater proportions and also affect industrial safety.

Risks are an inherent part of the activities of the hydrocarbon sector, therefore as part of its security policy, companies must make the decision between retaining and transferring risks. They will generally retain those that may have minor consequences and whose costs do not affect their assets. In the case of risks that can have serious consequences, it is better to transfer them through an insurance.

The insurances that companies in the hydrocarbon sector must contract to complement their industrial and operational safety policy are: 1) well control (exploration and extraction companies); 2) construction and assembly; 3) civil and environmental liability; 4) property damage; 5) electronic equipment; 6) machinery breakage; 7) Boilers and equipment subject to pressure, among others.

If the activities are carried out with vessels, the insurances to be contracted are: 1) hull and machinery, 2) protection and compensation and, if applicable, 3) the charterer’s civil liability.

Each one of these insurances will cover some aspect that will contribute to complement the policy of industrial and operational safety, with the aim of having safer facilities and reducing to the maximum the possibility of an economic detriment to the companies of the sector.

 

At NRGI Broker, we are experts in insurance for the hydrocarbon sector. Come to us, we will gladly assist you.

 

Los puntos clave del Midstream Forum: Infraestructura, Logística y Administración de riesgos

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El día de ayer, se llevó a cabo con éxito la segunda edición del Midstream Forum, organizado por Grupo T21 y patrocinado por empresas como NRGI Broker; Kansas City Southern de México; Energéticos Nieto, GATX;  Amspec, entre otros.

El evento fue inaugurado por el Ing. Juan Acra, presidente del Consejo Mexicano de la Energía (COMENER), acompañado de la Lic. Graciela Álvarez Hoth, Directora General de NRGI Broker, Lic. Rosanety Barrios, Coordinadora General de Políticas de Transformación Industrial de la Secretaría de Energía y del Lic. Osiel Cárdenas de Grupo T21.

Durante las mesas de discusión, se debatió acerca de los desafíos y oportunidades en materia de almacenamiento y transporte de hidrocarburos y petrolíferos.

En la mesa sobre “Almacenamiento Mínimo de Petrolíferos”, donde participaron representantes de la Comisión Reguladora de Energía y de diversas empresas, se concluyó que la infraestructura existente es insuficiente para alcanzar los objetivos de la Reforma Energética, por lo que para empezar a ver resultados en materia de suministro energético a precios razonables, es necesario que los proyectos avancen.

En la segunda mesa se abordó el tema sobre “Áreas de oportunidades de Logística”, en el que se destacó que si bien es cierto, la apuesta actual en materia de transporte son los ductos por ser un medio económico y eficiente, actualmente las embarcaciones, los ferrocarriles y los auto-tanques desempeñan un papel fundamental en materia logística, por su disponibilidad y características particulares.

En la última mesa denominada “Safety, Security & Insurance”, participaron el Lic. Alfredo Orellana, Jefe de la Unidad Jurídica de la Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente (ASEA), Pablo Carstens de la empresa Ipreset, y Graciela Álvarez Hoth, Directora General de NRGI Broker, donde se abordó el desafío de la seguridad en el sector hidrocarburos, no sólo en lo relativo a la seguridad industrial y operativa, sino también relacionado con el reto que representa el crimen organizado.

En el marco de su ponencia, Alfredo Orellana anunció la inminente publicación de la regulación en materia de seguros para las actividades de transporte, almacenamiento, distribución y expendio de hidrocarburos y petrolíferos, por lo que próximamente estarán definidos los requerimientos en materia de seguros en toda la cadena de valor.

Graciela Álvarez, por su parte, presentó el tema de Administración de Riesgos en el Sector Hidrocarburos, donde destacó que se trata de una metodología que permite identificar y analizar los riesgos de la industria y elegir qué hacer con ellos: retenerlos, lo que significar asumir todos los costos de la pérdida y la reparación de los daños en caso de un siniestro o transferirlos, a través de un programa integral de seguros, con lo que el asegurado obtiene respaldo económico en caso de una eventualidad.

Asimismo, destacó que la regulación en materia de seguros obligatorios, no debe verse como una carga administrativa, sino como un instrumento financiero de protección del patrimonio.

El evento finalizó con conferencias, en las que diversos expertos presentaron las más recientes innovaciones en el sector energético, tales como puntos de arbitraje en el mercado de combustibles; transferencia de custodia en transacciones comerciales y el etanol en México.

 

La administración de riesgos en el sector hidrocarburos: Almacenamiento y Transporte por ductos

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Las terminales de almacenamiento y los ductos son la infraestructura estratégica para lograr el avance y consolidación de la Reforma Energética.

Se trata, por tanto, de un área de oportunidad que seguirá generando nuevas inversiones, pero que a su vez incrementará los desafíos para los inversionistas, así como a las autoridades, principalmente en lo relativo a:

1) Asegurar el suministro energético.

2) Incrementar la competitividad mediante enfoques de menor costo.

3) Proteger a las personas,  las instalaciones y el cuidado del medio ambiente.

Todo ello nos lleva a ser conscientes que en la medida que se incrementen las actividades de toda la cadena de valor de los hidrocarburos, también podemos vernos expuestos a mayores riesgos.

De ahí la importancia  que tiene que las empresas adopten el enfoque de la administración de riesgos en el desarrollo de sus proyectos, para evitar que se produzcan eventos súbitos e indeseados que puedan provocar daños y perjuicios a terceros en sus instalaciones, activos o al bien que nos pertenece a todos, me refiero al medio ambiente y en caso de que suceda el incidente o accidente, los responsables cuenten con las garantías financieras que les permitan tener los recursos necesarios para asumir las responsabilidades y reparar los daños, ese respaldo es posible a través de un  programa de seguros.

Todos estamos expuestos a sufrir un accidente, los riesgos son latentes en todas las actividades de la vida y especialmente en una industria calificada de alto riesgo, como es la de los hidrocarburos.

La diferencia está en la forma en que nos relacionamos con ellos. Si bien, las medidas de prevención y la utilización de los estándares y mejores prácticas internacionales de seguridad industrial y protección del medio ambiente pueden disminuir la frecuencia, son muchos los factores que inciden para que se presente un siniestro y algunos de ellos no se pueden prever, como es el caso de un desastre natural como son los huracanes o terremotos solo por citar algunos.

Con el adecuado programa integral de seguros, las empresas que realizan actividades con hidrocarburos y petrolíferos pueden contar con diversos beneficios:

  • Cumplen con sus responsabilidades legales en caso de causar daños o perjuicios a terceros que muchas veces llegan a ser mayores que el daño directo a los equipos o instalaciones.
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    Disponen del respaldo económico que les da la solvencia de las instituciones de seguros, por los riesgos a los que está expuesta la organización o actividad que llevan a cabo, porque los seguros cubren la mayor parte de riesgos del sector hidrocarburos desde la etapa de la exploración, la extracción, la construcción y hasta la operación de las terminales de almacenamiento y los ductos.
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  • Protegen el patrimonio del asegurado, ya que en caso de un siniestro, la aseguradora no solo responderá por los daños ocasionados, sino que hace posible que las empresas puedan volver a trabajar sin sufrir un quebranto.
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  • Los seguros no inmovilizan capital, pues basta con el pago de la prima para obtener certeza de su vigencia y sus beneficios.
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En síntesis los seguros son un aliado estratégico para la operación exitosa de su negocio, que en el mundo entero han probado su eficacia.


En NRGI Broker, somos expertos en seguros. Acércate a nosotros, con gusto te atenderemos.


 




La importancia de la Línea Base Ambiental
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De conformidad con los artículos 27 párrafo séptimo de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos; 15 de la Ley de Hidrocarburos y 38 fracción II de la Ley de Órganos Reguladores en Materia Energética, para llevar a cabo las actividades de extracción de hidrocarburos, los particulares o empresas productivas del Estado deben celebrar un contrato con la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH).


En dicho contrato, se establece la obligación de elaborar, en un plazo de 180 días después de la Fecha Efectiva (la fecha de firma del Contrato), los estudios para definir la Línea Base Ambiental (LBA), previo al inicio de las actividades petroleras, la cual debe ser presentada ante la Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente (ASEA).


La LBA se refiere a “las condiciones ambientales en las que se encuentran los hábitats, ecosistemas, elementos y recursos naturales, así como las relaciones de interacción y los servicios ambientales, existentes en el área contractual, al momento en que se elabora el estudio para su determinación”. Permite identificar daños ambientales (los que ocurren sobre algún elemento natural a consecuencia de un impacto ambiental adverso) y daños preexistentes (los pasivos ambientales presentes en el área contractual).


A través de la LBA se determinan las responsabilidades del contratista, el cual sólo podrá excusarse de los daños ambientales y daños preexistentes que hayan sido reportados en la LBA; las autoridades competentes, por su parte, vigilarán que el contratista o asignatario que estuviera a cargo del Área Contractual con anterioridad a la Fecha Efectiva asuma la responsabilidad y los gastos relacionados con la restauración y compensación de los Daños Ambientales y la caracterización y remediación de los Daños Preexistentes.


No elaborar la LBA, no hacerlo en los tiempos establecidos o realizarla de manera deficiente, además de ser un incumplimiento legal, puede implicar que el contratista asuma la responsabilidad respecto a daños ambientales, que pudieron haberse ocasionado de manera previa, lo que puede significar el pago de elevadas sumas económicas para remediarlos y/o compensarlos. Al respecto, se debe considerar que el seguro de responsabilidad ambiental sólo ampara los daños ocasionados a partir de su contratación.


En NRGI BROKER sabemos que la elaboración de la Línea Base Ambiental es fundamental por su impacto en el ámbito de la responsabilidad ambiental y como soporte para un adecuado programa de aseguramiento; por eso, nos encargamos de ofrecer a nuestros clientes las mejores opciones en seguros y proporcionamos asesoría legal y ambiental a lo largo de la toda la cadena de valor del Sector Hidrocarburos. Acércate a nosotros.


 




 


Rangeland Energy Begins Operations at its South Texas Energy Products System (STEPS) Terminal Facility in Corpus Christi, Texas
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Oil and Gas 360 / june 5


 


SUGAR LAND, Texas




Rangeland Energy III, LLC (“Rangeland”) today announced that operations commenced at its STEPS terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Monday, June 4. Rangeland also announced that in June the company will begin loading diesel onto railcars for a leading refined products customer. The diesel will be delivered to third-party inland terminals in Mexico via the Kansas City Southern Railway(NYSE: KSU).


“Rangeland is looking forward to facilitating the transportation of diesel to destinations in Mexico for a major industry player,” said Rangeland President and CEO Christopher W. Keene. “This is the first customer to contract with us for services at the STEPS facility. As we continue to build out the STEPS project, we are working with other key marketers, refiners and producers to provide services into and out of STEPS.”


About STEPS


STEPS is an integrated hydrocarbon logistics system that receives and stores refined products, liquefied petroleum gas (“LPG”) and other hydrocarbons at a new terminal hub located in Corpus Christi, Texas, and transports them to terminals primarily located in Mexico. During the initial phase of the project, refined products and LPGs will be received in the Corpus Christi terminal then shipped to third-party inland terminals located in Mexico. In subsequent phases, marine facilities in Corpus Christi and Mexico will be added to the system, along with the infrastructure to accommodate additional commodities including crude oil, condensate and fuel oil. The STEPS project expands upon and leverages Rangeland’s successful track record of developing similar infrastructure in the Bakken Shale and Permian Basin.


The terminal site in Corpus Christi is strategically situated along the Kansas City Southern Railroad mainline within five miles of the Port of Corpus Christi and the Valero, CITGO and Flint Hills refineries. Inbound products initially will be delivered by truck or rail, followed later by pipeline and barge. Refined products and LPGs will move out of the STEPS Corpus Terminal primarily by rail, but the terminal could eventually connect to pipelines and vessels.


About Rangeland Energy


Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, Rangeland Energy was formed in 2009 to focus on developing, acquiring, owning and operating midstream infrastructure for crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and other petroleum products. The company is focused on emerging hydrocarbon production areas across North America, with a current emphasis on the Gulf Coast and Canada. The Rangeland team represents more than 200 years of combined midstream experience and is backed by an equity commitment from EnCap Flatrock Midstream. Visit www.rangelandenergy.com for more information.


 




Oil and Gas 360 / june 5


 




Netherland Sewell Adds Mexico City to the 2018 Oil & Gas Property Evaluation Seminar Lineup
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Oil & Gas 360º / May 29


 


NSAI Oil & Gas Property Evaluation seminars coming to London, Singapore and Mexico City this summer


Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSAI) has again expanded the reach of its popular Oil & Gas Property Evaluation Seminars for financial professionals, with the new addition of a seminar in Mexico City on September 5-6, 2018.


“We are very excited to introduce the NSAI Oil & Gas Property Evaluation seminars to Mexico,” said NSAI SVP & CFO Scott Frost. “With the country opening its hydrocarbon sector to foreign investors and international partners, the time is right for NSAI to host a seminar in Mexico.”


Seminars deliver a basic understanding of the upstream oil and gas industry


The two-day seminars are designed to help energy finance professionals gain a deeper understanding of the various aspects of the evaluation of hydrocarbon reserves and learn how to use reserves reports and studies.  Participants can expect to gain a basic understanding of the upstream oil and gas industry, including basic geology of different plays, reservoir evaluation basics, reserves and resources definitions, understanding hydrocarbons-in-place, recovery factors and rates, operating expenses and capital costs, and more.


The seminar speakers are NSAI professionals that have significant career expertise in reserves determination methods, the economics of hydrocarbon extraction, and petroleum geology. The seminars are popular with financial institutions that invest in energy development as well as banks that are involved in making lending decisions for oil and gas exploration and production projects.


Below is the 2018 NSAI Oil & Gas Property Evaluation seminar calendar:


    

  • May 7 & 8 and 9 & 10, 2018 – Dallas (Both sessions had record attendance with a waiting list)
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  • June 26 & 27, 2018 – London: Grange City Hotel
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  • July 10 & 11, 2018 – Singapore: Singapore Exchange – SGX Auditorium
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  • September 5 – 6, 2018 – Mexico City: Asturiano Polanco Banquet Room
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NSAI encourages energy industry and oil and gas financial professionals to pass this information on to colleagues who may benefit from attending. “We are excited about the opportunity to meet again with petroleum industry financial professionals and would like to thank you for recommending our seminars to your colleagues,” said NSAI SVP Joseph Spellman.


Scott Rees, NSAI Chairman and CEO, told Oil & Gas 360® that the firm has graduated about 6,500 people during 38 cumulative years of seminars in Dallas, London and Singapore. “We are glad to be adding Mexico City to that list,” Rees said.


Interested parties may learn more and register at NSAI’s website.


 


Oil & Gas 360º / May 29


 




PROGRAMA INTEGRAL DE SEGUROS: LA CLAVE EN EL SECTOR HIDROCARBUROS
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Contratar un seguro no basta para decir que una empresa está adecuadamente protegida contra los eventuales riesgos que pueda enfrentar; lo anterior, toda vez que un seguro sólo va a cubrir ciertos riesgos y a excluir otros. Por ello, la clave es contar con un programa integral de seguros.


Especificamente en el sector de hidrocarburos y sus derivados, la cadena de valor  es amplia y compleja, abarca distintas actividades: Exploración, Extracción, Refinación y Procesamiento, Transporte, Almacenamiento, Distribución y Expendio al público.


Se trata de actividades que son altamente riesgosas por las características intrínsecas de los hidrocarburos (explosivos  y flamables) las cuales les otorgan el potencial de causar daños y perjuicios. A dichos riesgos, se le suman aquellos que son particulares de cada actividad. Por ejemplo, en las actividades de extracción existe la posibilidad de un descontrol de pozo, lo que puede causar severos daños a personas y medio ambiente; los auto-tanques que transportan gasolina o gas licuado de petróleo pueden ocasionar pérdidas catastróficas en caso de una explosión pues transitan en zonas de alta densidad poblacional; los ductos son sujetos a actos vandálicos para sustraer los hidrocarburos, lo cual puede provocar contaminación a partir de los derrames.


Para evitar este tipo de eventualidades, las empresas generalmente implementan una serie de medidas de seguridad industrial y protección ambiental a través de un proceso de administración de riesgos, sin embargo la posibilidad de que alguna de éstas falle siempre existirá, por eso es sumamente importante contar con los mecanismos de transferencia de riesgos que otorguen respaldo económico en caso de siniestro.


Los seguros son instrumentos de transferencia del riesgo, que están diseñados para cumplir con objetivos específicos. Por ejemplo, un seguro de responsabilidad civil otorga cobertura por los daños y perjuicios que se causen a terceros en sus personas y bienes; un seguro de responsabilidad ambiental sirve para absorber los costos de remediación o compensación por contaminación ambiental; un seguro de control de pozos, como su nombre lo indica, está diseñado para asumir los costos que se deriven de un accidente en un pozo de perforación que provoque su descontrol.


La mejor manera de que las empresas de la industria de hidrocarburos estén debidamente protegidas es a través  de un programa integral de seguros que abarque todas sus áreas de riesgo.


En el contexto actual de la Reforma Energética,en la que participan activamente nuevos operadores que han comprometido su capital, las empresas  deben estar preparadas para actuar en un escenario de riesgo, donde deberán ajustar sus esquemas de aseguramiento a fin de evitar una reducción de la utilidad esperada o incluso un impacto negativo en su patrimonio.


En NRGI Bróker somos expertos  en administración de riesgos y programas integrales de seguros. Acércate a nosotros, con gusto te atenderemos.


 




Mexico’s Billion Dollar Oil Industry Ripe for the Picking
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Baystreet Staff / May 22


 


It may have taken the better part of a century, but Mexico figured out that their state-owned energy monopoly, PEMEX, was a business model that just wasn’t working out. After hammering out legislation in 2013 to denationalize the nation’s oil and gas industry, the worst thing that could happen, did; oil prices collapsed, and companies globally hit the brakes on spending. What was expected to be the opening of floodgates to invest in arguably the biggest energy opportunity today didn’t happen quite as expected. With oil prices climbing to fresh three-and-a-half year highs, all that is changing and the Mexico’s oil space is starting to heat up with investment of $150 billion now secured.


As it happens, investors’ conservative approach worked perfectly in favor of Steve Hanson and his team at International Frontier Resources Corp. (TSX-V: IFR) . “We knew that we were heading to Mexico for the first onshore licensing round to build the cornerstones of our operations,” Hanson said in a phone call with Baystreet.ca. “We were in a strong financial position with a clear mission to become the next energy leader in Mexico. Others staying on the sidelines as oil bottomed in 2016 really worked to our benefit as a first-mover in Mexico’s energy reform.”


The savvy leadership at IFR, formed an equal partnership with a Mexican petrochemical giant, as a result, this Canadian company became the first foreign-owned joint venture (JV) and independent oil company to actively explore onshore opportunities in Mexico in over 80 years. Through its strategic JV, IFR is also the first foreign company to complete the regulatory review and drill onshore conventional oil in Mexico under license contract. You’d think it would have been a major like Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) or Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHGE) or Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), companies that were already working in the area as service providers to PEMEX, but it wasn’t. It was a little $30 million market cap. company that was nimble enough to beat everyone to the punch.


“We weren’t afraid of the price of oil. Not even at the $40 per barrel that oil was fetching at the time; we knew we could still make money based on our expertise and interpretation of the geology,” said Hanson. “At $70 oil, we’re obviously excited with our position, ” he added.


Confident for Good Reason


Hanson’s confidence isn’t unfounded. He has over two decades of well-grounded experience in finance and corporate development, serving as chairman and managing director at the award-winning equity money management firm Van Arbor Asset Management before selling it with a sizable payout to the ZLC Private Investment Management in 2008. Next he was the CEO and president of PanAsian Petroleum that was sold profitably to Ivanhoe Energy, shortly after Hanson took charge. Likewise, that was followed by serving as a director at Lion Petroleum, a company focused on oil and gas in East Africa which was then acquired by Taipan Resources.


IFR’s management team is the embodiment of success and has experience across the finance and energy spectrum throughout the globe, including COO and director Andy Fisher, who has a history of taking companies with negligible assets to robust oil and gas production. For instance, he founded Arcan Resources and grew it from no production to 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), before the company was sold to Aspenleaf Energy Ltd., in June 2015 for CDN. $300 million. He was also VP, international contracts and negotiation, at Pacalta Resources Ltd. (“Pacalta”) in Ecuador, where he helped in growing the company from 100 boe/d in production to roughly 45,000 boe/d. In 1999, Alberta Energy Co., the predecessor to EnCana’s (TSX: ECA) (NYSE: ECA), bought Pacalta in a deal worth approximately CDN. $1.0 billion!


For the sake of brevity, the profiles of everyone contributing to IFR’s future can’t be covered; however, it certainly is worth mentioning that Colin Mills, an independent director at IFR, has more than three decades of diverse international experience in power generation, including building two power plants in Mexico, which adds to the local advantage of IFR in terms of navigating the regulatory environment in Mexico.


The commitment and confidence of these individuals to IFR is best recognized based on the fact that insiders hold more than one-third of the company’s outstanding shares.


It’s this experience and dedication at IFR that led to the formation of Tonalli Energia, a 50-50 JV between IFR’s Mexican subsidiary, Petro Frontera S.A.P.I de CV, and Mexican petrochemical giant Grupo IDESA. As a first mover, the partnership and its in-country experience gives Tonalli a serious competitive edge to catapult it forward into becoming the next energy leader in Mexico.


The Tecolutla Project – Now a Producer!


Imagine every bit of oil in Texas was controlled by one company for the last 80 years. That’s a rough analogy for what has been going on in Mexico. It’s explored enough (both on- and offshore) to know that there are tremendous reserves, possibly comparable to the all-resilient Permian Basin, but woefully little with respect to extracting oil and gas. Right now, Mexico ranks as the Western hemisphere’s third largest oil producer and host of the fourth largest known oil reserves.


Those could be conservative positions in the future considering Premier Oil last summer made a major offshore discovery in a block next to Talos Energy and Sierra Oil and Gas that is estimated to hold in excess of one billion barrels of oil that possibly extend into the adjacent block. This was discovered through the first shallow water offshore exploration well drilled since denationalization. Shares of Premier rocketed higher with the find. “Few think of Mexico in the same terms as Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that Mexico has similar quantities of hydrocarbon resources,” argued a recent report published by Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. However, this is about to change with higher oil prices and growing investor interest.


Lending further credence to Mexican oil potential, IHS Markit thinks the country’s untapped Tampico-Misantla Basin on the east coast of Mexico could be one of the world’s next “super basins.” Part of the basin includes the massive Poza Rica oil field, estimated to contain 3.8 billion boe, and IFR’s Tecolutla project which has now commenced completion operations for its recently drilled TEC-10 well.


The Tampico basin is known to have geology similar to the prolific North American basins, with stacked conventional and unconventional pay zones. In fact, IFR recently drilled 138 meters of reef thickness at its directional evaluation, TEC-10 well. It is also known that such basins tend to have “halo” zones of tight oil (light oil that is easily produced) surrounding them, this may be supported by the limited amount of exploration that has so far occurred at Tecolutla.


Seven wells were drilled between 1956-1972, with a well with last recorded production rates in January 2016. IFR announced the completion of a successful workover of a legacy TEC-2 well which was tested for production for a total of seven days and far exceeded management expectations. The well reported an average flow of 125 barrels of oil per day which was more than 13 times higher compared to last recorded production on the well! Newly drilled TEC-10 is next to test for production rates which is the most exciting moment for IFR JV since its inception!


IFR was awarded the block in May 2016 with no cash payment, merely a royalty agreement which offered one of the most favourable terms in comparison to the royalties on other blocks offered during the bid round. Furthermore, Export Development Canada (EDC) backstopped IFR by putting up the company’s portion of the performance bond required by Tonalli, allowing the company to conserve its cash, while lending a great deal of validation to the project. IFR ended the first quarter of 2018 with $2.81 million in cash and cash equivalents and no debt.


The first drill rig penetrated the ground in April, reached depth of 2,453 meters total vertical depth and was cased for production testing this month which was a historic moment for the Mexican oil and gas sector. Several points stand out when looking at the disclosed results, namely the fact that visible oil was noticeable from the core and the fact that oil was hit at deeper levels than oil was ever produced in the zone historically, indicating the El Abra reservoir at Tecolutla could have greater volume than ever believed.


Moreover, IFR, via Tonalli, is using modern exploration technology at Tecolutla for the first time. IFR is using the first-ever 3D seismic data shot for the whopping 81-billion-barrel Chicontepec formation with the aim of helping better understand Tecolutla field.


The beauty of the rock, according to Hanson, is not just that it is apparently flush with oil, but naturally fractured as well, making horizontal drilling easy, without the need for fracturing that draw the ire of environmentalists. These characteristics mean that the drilling is low cost, to the extent that Hanson believes the company can produce profitably at a cost of less than $20-$25 per barrel.


The Upcoming Catalysts


IFR is presently working on production testing, continuing analysis of the wireline, image logs and core analysis, refining the 3D seismic model and identifying the next drill target. The JV is looking ahead to the second tender of Round Three of bidding for projects (scheduled for September 27, 2018). Given the surge in value that Premier Oil experienced with its find, any positive data regarding the initial drill hole underpinned by historic production, should energize IFR shares and likely drive the attention of the investment community.


“We started IFR and moved aggressively in Mexico with the purpose of building a billion-dollar company,” Hanson added during the call. He continued, “We are very proud of being a first-mover in what we believe is going to quickly emerge as one of the most vibrant energy markets in the world and we’re not going to relent in our efforts to build value just as we have with previous companies.”


It’s difficult to disagree with anything Hanson says. They have nailed all of their milestones so far and certainly have plenty of running room to add to their portfolio. They have an outstanding partner in Grupo IDESA, the backing of EDC, are fully-funded for the existing work program, all the necessary infrastructure is in place, and they have outstanding experience across the entire supply chain that should allow IFR to sell oil at a price that couldn’t be realized anywhere else in the Western hemisphere.


Now, if they just start to prove the oil and the economic viability of the resource as they believe, IFR should be off to the races as the company looks to notch the next major success in their already impressive accomplishments.


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Baystreet Staff / May 22


 




Expert questions BP’s drilling plans for offshore Nova Scotia
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The Canadian Press / The Chronicle Herald / May 15


 


An engineering expert and former oil industry consultant has raised the alarm on BP Canada Energy Group’s plans to drill off Nova Scotia.


“Given BP’s current proposals for exploratory drilling offshore Nova Scotia, the likelihood of an uncontrolled blowout exceeds the upper limits for tolerability of exploratory well drilling risks,” said Robert Bea in his risk analysis of BP’s plans.


Bea, who is professor emeritus at the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management at the University of California at Berkeley, has investigated catastrophes including the Columbia space shuttle explosion in 1987 and the blowout of a Deepwater Horizon rig owned by BP eight years ago.


“Based on the information provided by BP, the blowout risk is clearly not acceptable,” Bea said in an interview Monday.


Bea uses a complex risk assessment system that looks into factors such as the commitment of everyone involved in an operation to safety, from contractors to the company’s top managers. The company’s awareness of major risks and its technical and management ability to assess risk is also taken into account.


After applying these criteria to BP’s plans for offshore Nova Scotia, Bea said the risk of an uncontrolled blowout like Deepwater Horizon was high. Eleven rig workers were killed in the Deepwater explosion on April 20, 2010, in the Gulf of Mexico and it triggered the biggest oil spill in U.S. history at an estimated 4.9 million barrels.


In a decision in early April, the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board authorized BP Canada to do preparatory work in advance of its plan to drill an exploration well about 50 kilometres off Sable Island. The decision drew protests from groups, including the Council of Canadians, about the environmental risks associated with the project and the strength of the regulations that govern the offshore.


BP contends that if there was a blowout off Nova Scotia, there would be sufficient time to drill a relief well and to get access to equipment such as a capping stack to contain the situation. But Bea said he questions that optimism, based on the documentation he’s seen and his personal experience in assessing gas and oil projects.


The provincial and federal governments have denied that the project, which could see up to seven exploration wells drilled off the southeast coast of Nova Scotia over a three-year period, poses unacceptable environmental risks.


Premier Stephen McNeil has said he’s confident that BP would take the appropriate measures to ensure safety and environmental responsibility throughout the project. He said BP has taken strides to strengthen regulations since Deepwater.


Federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna has said the project “is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects.”


Bea agrees there would be economic benefits for Nova Scotia but only if the project is done successfully.


“I don’t think it’s a case of we should do this at all,” he said. “I think it’s a case of if we choose to do this, we need to do it with the best available technology. Because the consequences of being wrong are too high.”


 


The Canadian Press / The Chronicle Herald / May 15