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22 August, 2018/Hydrocarbons Storage, Mexico’s Energy Reform, Oil & Gas, Oil Operators, Our Core, Pipelines, Risk Management, Surety and Guarantees

La “Reforma Energética”de 2013 significó una apertura al sector privadoen esferas antes reservadas exclusivamente a órganos gubernamentales, tales como los sectores de infraestructura, hidrocarburos y energía; propiciando un modelo estratégico en el que los inversionistas pueden ser participantes en el desarrollo de proyectos de estos rubros como Empresas Productivas del Estado (EPE).

Estas EPE cuentan con personalidad jurídica y patrimonio propios, así como cierta autonomía que las empresas paraestatales y empresas públicas carecen; otorgando la posibilidad de abrir los sectores señalados con anterioridad a un panorama competitivo en el mercado mexicano. Con este nuevo paradigma, las prospectivas de los sectores eléctrico, de hidrocarburos y de energías renovables se amplían, como lo demuestran las siguientes cifras dentro de los documentos emitidos por la Secretaría de Energía (Prospectivas 2017-2031):

La producción estimada de aceite (miles de barriles diarios) aumenta de 1,964 a 3,252 al año 2031.
En el 2016, la capacidad instalada del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional se ubicó en 73,510 MW; pronosticando que para el 2031, esta cifra aumente hasta 113,269 MW.
En el 2016, existía un balance en el que la Energía Convencional comprendía un 71.2% y la Energía Limpia un 28.8% de la capacidad instalada por tipo de tecnología; previendo para el 2031 que la Energía Convencional ocupe un 50.4% y la Energía Limpia un 49.6%.
El incremento esperado de procesamiento de crudo es de 79.6% para el periodo 2017-2031.

Estos son ejemplos de las altas expectativas que se tienen del crecimiento en cuanto a producción, desarrollo y consumo de Energía e Hidrocarburos en poco más de una década. Con lo anterior en consideración, se debe prever que Empresas Productivas del Estado podrán realizar las siguientes actividades encaminadas a alcanzar estos Pronósticos:

Sector Hidrocarburos:Exploración superficial marítima y sísmica terrestre; Exploración y Extracción de hidrocarburos; Tratamiento y Refinación de Petróleo; Transporte de Hidrocarburos, Petrolíferos y Petroquímicos; Almacenamiento de Hidrocarburos, Petrolíferos y Petroquímicos; Distribución de Gas Natural y Petrolíferos; Compresión, licuefacción, descompresión y regasificación de Gas Natural; y Expendio al público de Gas Natural y Petrolíferos.

Sector Electricidad:Generación de Energía Eléctrica y Servicio público de transmisión y distribución de energía eléctrica.

En este tenor, es importante mencionar que la realización de todas estas actividades requerirán de la presentación de un estudio técnico denominado Evaluación de Impacto Social (EVIS), el cual contiene la identificación de las comunidades y pueblos ubicados en el área de influencia de un proyecto, así como la identificación, caracterización, predicción y valoración de las consecuencias a la población que podrían derivarse del mismo y las medidas de mitigación y planes de gestión social correspondientes.

En congruencia con lo establecido en la Ley de la Industria Eléctrica (LIE) y la Ley de Hidrocarburos, el 01 de junio de 2018, se publicó en el Diario Oficial de la Federación el Acuerdo por el que se emiten las Disposiciones Administrativas de Carácter General sobre la Evaluación de Impacto Social en el Sector Energético(el “Acuerdo”).

Dentro de este Acuerdo, se establece la metodología y criterios necesarios para la presentación del EVIS, un avance para la calidad de estos estudios por motivos de que la regulación y los lineamientos necesarios para la su elaboración eran escasos y no existían lineamientos definidos que pudieran usarse como base para las Empresas Productivas del Estado.

Finalmente, no se debe perder de vista la estrecha relación existente entre la Evaluación de Impacto Social y la Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental (EIA), en el entendido que la primera es un prerrequisito para la autorización de la EIA. Es requisito para los regulados contar en forma previa con las autorizaciones de ambos estudios para el desarrollo de los proyectos encaminados a los sectores de Energía e Hidrocarburos. En la siguiente figura se muestra el proceso de elaboración y evaluación de las EVIS.

Con más de 20 años de experiencia, cobertura internacional y fuerte compromiso con la sustentabilidad, la innovación y la calidad de nuestros servicios en el sector hidrocarburos, energía, turismo, desarrollo urbano, infraestructura, medio ambiente y minería; hemos conformado un catálogo de productos y servicios con valor agregado que resuelva en forma sistémica las necesidades de nuestros clientes y grupos de interés, en materia de planeación, manejo, gestión ambiental y desarrollo sostenible, incluyendo la elaboración de EVIS y la EIA. Para ello, ponemos a su disposición la red más amplia y especializada de expertos a nivel nacional e internacional, ofreciendo una plataforma integral en la materia, trazando las alternativas y estrategias necesarias para el correcto desarrollo de Proyectos Sustentables en México, entre ellos.

Para mayor información y cualquier duda o necesidad derivada de la información presentada en el presente boletín, estamos a su disposición a través de:

Consultores en Gestión Política y Planificación Ambiental, S.C.

David Zárate Lomelí

Director General

Teléfono: (998) 6 88 08 75

E-mail: dzarate@gppa.com.mx

www.gppa.com.mx

Energy Insurance Broker, Agente de Seguros y de Fianzas, S.A.P.I. de C.V.

Graciela Álvarez Hoth

CEO NRGI Broker

Teléfono: (55) 9177 2100

E-mail: graciela.alvarez@nrgibroker.com

www.nrgibroker.com

Is Mexico Set To Boost Oil Output?

21 August, 2018/Environment, Hydrocarbons Storage, Insurance, Mexico’s Energy Reform, News, Oil & Gas, Oil Operators, Our Core, Pipelines, Risk Management, Uncategorized

Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

On July 27, Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador said his government will earmark more than $9 billion for state-run energy companies next year and start working on a new oil refinery in southern Mexico. The moves seek to reduce reliance on fuel imports from the United States while boosting the country’s oil production, which has significantly fallen off in recent years. López Obrador did not say how he would fund his proposals, an omission that worries analysts concerned about Pemex’s already heavy debt burden. He also announced Octavio Romero Oropeza as the incoming head of Pemex. Will the promised investment help accelerate Pemex’s oil and gas production? What else is needed to boost output? How well prepared is Romero Oropeza to lead Pemex, and what should his priorities be? Four Mexican energy experts weighed in with their opinions on these developments.

George Baker, publisher of Mexico Energy Intelligence in Houston: The 116-page energy sector document that the Morena transition team issued on July 10 sports both good and bad ideas. First, among the good ideas, is advocating independent unions in the oil sector (the first time since 1935 that a political party has done this). Second is suspending until further review the so-called farm-outs of Pemex—the idea that civil servants (Pemex employees) and market-disciplined managers of oil companies can have a joint venture based on sharing risk and reward only makes sense on paper. Third is promoting the concept of intelligent cities, including low energy consumption, renewable energy and intelligent grids. A fourth good idea is expanding the grid of natural gas pipelines and the use of renewable energy sources and cogeneration. Among the bad ideas: first is reactivating the refinery project in Tula and analyzing the construction of another refinery in the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex refinery upgrades have gone badly for the past 20 years, notably in Cadereyta, Villahermosa and Tula. A new refinery could take three years just for design and another three for contracting and financing. López Obrador would likely leave office before the first shovelful of earth was turned for the new refinery. Second is the upgrade of the role of Pemex in the energy space. The Morena team proposes to eliminate the so-called ‘asymmetrical regulations’ that restrict Pemex to compete effectively—to aspire to ‘make Pemex great again’ as a state agency is to ignore global success stories of state oil companies with mixed-equity structures, market financing and professional management. Finally, a third bad idea is to overstate (and obfuscate) the potential for change via public policy: there is nothing that is actionable in statements such as ‘the necessary investments in Pemex should be made,’ or ‘efforts to increase exploration and production of natural gas should be made to favor the petrochemical industry,’ or ‘deepen and coordinate all efforts to eliminate the black market in petroleum products.’ Notably, one word that does not appear in the text is ‘corruption,’ an unexpected omission by a candidate that vowed to end corruption by example. Finally, former Pemex director general Adrián Lajous recently calculated the average tenure of a director general as two years and four months. Pemex, legally configured as an agency of the federal government, always has a dozen cooks in its kitchen of corporate governance. If a director general had the authority to order early retirement for 35,000 Pemex unionized workers, there would be opportunities for leadership.

David Shields, independent energy consultant based in Mexico City: In a previous comment for the Energy Advisor on June 15, I mentioned that President-elect López Obrador’s energy team has excellent, progressive plans in renewable energy. Sadly, the same does not apply to conventional energy. The naming of Octavio Romero and Manuel Bartlett to head state-run Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has been severely criticized because of their hardline political, ideological, non-technical, non-business nature. They may be okay for rooting out corruption, but they add to fears that recent energy reforms may be rolled back, even if they and López Obrador himself deny legal amendments will be made. Congress will ultimately decide on this, and the outlook there is bad. Reforms can be reversed in practice, anyway, just through day-to-day opposition. López Obrador says he will push oil output up sharply to 2.5 million barrels per day, but reserves and reservoirs are largely depleted, there are no new discoveries, and there is not enough money for a vast exploration effort. Foreign operators will need several years to develop their projects. His best bet for ramping up output quickly would be fracking, but he promises to prohibit that, thinking that environmental risks will be greater than the benefits. His refining plans are unrealistic, too. López Obrador´s native Tabasco State offers the wrong site and the wrong logistics for a large-scale refinery to be built in just three years. Such a project normally requires two years to study, plan and tender, then another five or six years to build. Even then, it can hardly be profitable if Mexico produces and processes only very heavy crude. Intentions to rescue Pemex and reduce reliance on energy imports are good, but the prospects are not.

Oil Price / By The Dialogue / August 16

Will Natural Gas Go On another Run in 2017?

9 January, 2017/News

From the multi-year slump of $1.611/MMBtu hit on 04 March 2016, to the highs of $3.902/MMBtu reached on December 28, 2016, natural gas prices have come a long way. Natural gas is 2016’s best performer among major commodities.

However, the big question is – Will the rally continue and what should be the strategy of the natural gas traders in 2017?

Until about November, the underground storage in the lower 48 states consistently stayed above the 5-year maximum levels, indicating a supply glut.

However, in December, the weather turned colder than normal, leading to a large drawdown in gas stocks. In the last six weeks of 2016, the U.S. working gas stocks in underground storage declined by 687 billion cubic feet, the largest seasonal decline since 2013, said John Kemp of Reuters.

In their Natural Gas Weekly Update released on December 22, 2016, the EIA said that in the first three weeks of December the U.S. natural gas consumption averaged 92 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), 21 percent higher than the previous year and 17 percent higher than the five-year average (2011-2015), according to data from PointLogic.

As temperatures fell in December the consumption of natural gas increased from 80 Bcf/d in the first week of December to 98 Bcf/d between December 8-21.

The EIA report said: “Triple-digit consumption days are generally rare in December. However, from December 15–21, natural gas consumption has averaged 103 Bcf/d and topped 100 Bcf during 4 out of 6 days”.

Latest weather report stems the rally

A week ago, the weather reports were forecasting extremely below-normal temperatures in parts of the Northwest and solidly below-normal temperatures in at least half of the country, however, the weather did a ‘U’ turn of sorts and the latest reports are forecasting higher-than-normal temperatures.

As a result, natural gas prices fell about 11.4 percent on January 3, 2017. Prices are now down close to 16.5 percent since touching the high on December 28, 2016.

So, is this the end of the rally or is this a buying opportunity?

Rig count on the rise

Along with the weather, the natural gas production is also a key factor in determining gas prices. In 2016, gas drilling rigs are up from a low of 81 in August to 132 at the end of the year. Along with it, the increase in oil-well drilling and the U.S. President elect’s supportive policy can also give a boost to natural gas production.

Hence, production in 2017 is likely to surprise on the upside compared to the previous year if prices remain supportive. The EIA forecasts natural gas marketed production to reach 79.94 Bcf/d) in 2017, an increase of 2.46 Bcf/d over 2016 and 1.166 Bcf/d above the 2015 level.

On the other hand, consumption is expected to rise to 75.96 Bcf/d in 2017, an increase of 0.74 Bcf/d over 2016 and 1.31 Bcf/d over 2015 levels.

Price forecast for 2017

The EIA expects natural gas prices to average $3.27/MMBtu in 2017 compared to the average of $2.49/MMBtu in 2016.

The World Bank and IMF, on the other hand, forecast natural gas to average $3/MMBtu in 2017.

The natural gas futures are rising within the uptrending channel. Two attempts to breakout of the channel have been unsuccessful; hence, we don’t see a sharp spike in prices in the near-term and expect the intraday highs of $3.90/MMBtu to be a major hurdle to cross.

Nonetheless, a drop to $2.8/MMBtu levels is a good opportunity to accumulate long positions for a target of $3.8/MMBtu. Traders should wait for dips to accumulate long positions, rather than buying the breakouts.

However, a lot will depend on the policy announcements from the President-elect Donald Trump, which will decide the trajectory of natural gas prices in 2017.