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Proposed border tax could harm U.S.-Mexico energy trade: official

20 February, 2017/News

A border tax floated by aides to U.S. President Donald Trump is “not a good idea” for bilateral energy trade, a senior Mexican official said on Wednesday, also confirming that Mexico’s second-ever deepwater oil auction would happen this year.

A 20 percent border tax on Mexican imports to the United States has been pitched by the Trump administration as one way to force Mexico to pay for a new border wall, a top campaign promise.

Separately, a so-called border adjustment tax has been proposed by the new administration and its Republican allies in Congress that in theory would tax imports but not exports.

Both proposed taxes face opposition from U.S. oil refiners and automakers, among other sectors, warning they would raise consumer prices.

“We don’t see this kind of a tax as a good idea,” said Aldo Flores, Mexico’s deputy energy minister for hydrocarbons.

“Our position continues to be that free trade and the free flow of these goods has benefited both countries, strengthening the energy security of both,” he said.

Relations between the United States and Mexico are especially tense as Trump has threatened to upend nearly a quarter century of free trade, deport millions of illegal immigrants and build his signature border wall while getting Mexico to pay it, something the Mexican government has said it will not do.

For decades, the two neighbors have nurtured a robust cross-border energy trade, with crude oil produced by state company Pemex sold to U.S. refiners, while American producers sell natural gas and fuels like gasoline and diesel to Mexican buyers.

Last year, the total value of U.S. energy exports to Mexico totaled $20.2 billion, while Mexico exported mostly crude oil worth $8.7 billion to the United States, in a reversal of the historic balance of energy trade between the two countries, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

Similarly, Mexico’s crude shipments could be pressured if the United States approves the new Trump-backed permit for TransCanada’s (TRP.TO) proposed Keystone XL pipeline and the project brings new supplies of Canadian heavy crude to U.S. refineries.

“Supposing that (the pipeline) is completed, that changes the competitive playing field for Mexican crude,” said Flores, adding that producers of oil in Mexico would have to be more creative in how they market their output.

DEEPWATER AUCTION

Mexican and Canadian heavy crudes have competed for years for buyers among U.S. Gulf coast refineries.

While Mexico’s oil regulator is planning three new oil auctions later this year, covering shallow water and onshore fields, a new deepwater auction is also planned.

“It will be toward the end of the year,” said Flores, who also sits on the Pemex board and took over as deputy energy minister in August.

He declined to specify where the deepwater blocks would be located.

Flores added that a first-ever auction of shale oil and gas blocks would “probably” be scheduled, noting that necessary regulations would be published before the end of the year.

Last year, Mexico concluded four first-ever oil auctions, part of a landmark energy opening finalized in 2014 that ended Pemex’s decades-long monopoly, including a December deepwater auction that awarded 10 blocks to a wide range of international oil majors.

While Mexican crude output has declined over the past dozen years from a peak of 3.4 million barrels per day, Flores said he expected output to total 1.9 million to 2.0 million bpd in 2018, similar to a forecast of 1.94 million bpd for this year.

David Alire Garcia and Adriana Barrera / Reuters

Wed Feb 15, 2017 | 8:09pm EST

Value of U.S. Energy Trade with Mexico Doubles

13 February, 2017/News

Energy trade between Mexico and the U.S. has historically been driven by Mexico’s sales of crude oil to the U.S. and by U.S. net exports of refined petroleum products to Mexico. The value balance has now tipped in favor of the U.S.

Through 2014, Mexico’s exports of crude oil were the most valuable component of bilateral energy trade, with the overall value of Mexico’s U.S. crude oil sales far exceeding the value of U.S. net sales of petroleum products, primarily gasoline and diesel fuel, to Mexico. From 2006 through 2010, for example, the value of U.S. energy imports from Mexico was two to three times greater than the value of U.S. energy exports to Mexico.

However, the bilateral energy trade situation with Mexico has changed significantly in recent years. In 2015 and 2016, the value of U.S. energy exports to Mexico, including rapidly growing volumes of both petroleum products and natural gas, exceeded the value of U.S. energy imports from Mexico as volumes of Mexican crude oil sold in the U.S. continued to decline. For 2016, the value of U.S. energy exports to Mexico was $20.2 billion, while the value of U.S. energy imports from that country was $8.7 billion.

Import and export values each reflect commodity volumes and their prices. Monthly trends in volumes through 2016 showed increasing U.S. petroleum product and natural gas exports to Mexico, with a generally declining trend in U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico.

Mexico is second only to Canada in energy trade with the U.S. Based on the latest annual data from the U.S. Census Bureau, energy accounted for about nine percent of all U.S. exports to Mexico and three percent of all U.S. imports from Mexico in 2016.

Crude oil makes up most of the energy imports from Mexico, averaging 688,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2015 and 588,000 b/d in the first 11 months of 2016. In 2015, Mexico was the source of nine percent of crude oil imported by the U.S., providing the fourth-largest share behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

From 2006 through 2014, U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico were valued at an annual average of about $30 billion, but more recently, as both the volume of crude oil imports from Mexico and world oil prices declined, U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico were valued at $12.5 billion in 2015 and $7.6 billion in 2016.

Mexico’s total crude oil exports have been declining as its oil production falls. Because Mexico has been sending more oil to countries in Europe and Asia, crude oil exports to the U.S. have been declining more rapidly than overall crude oil exports.

Petroleum products account for most of the value of energy exports from the U.S. to Mexico. In 2015, Mexico was the destination for 690,000 b/d of petroleum products, or 16 percent of all petroleum products exported from the U.S. These exports were valued at more than $16 billion. In 2015, even though the U.S. exported more petroleum products to Mexico than in 2014, the value of those products was lower because of lower prices for fuels such as gasoline, distillate fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gases.

In the first 11 months of 2016, petroleum product exports rose in both volume (averaging 849,000 b/d) and value relative to the first 11 months of 2015. Changes in Mexico’s utilization of petroleum refineries have created a widening gap between its domestic supply and demand, and U.S. gasoline exports now make up more than half of Mexico’s gasoline consumption. Compared with petroleum product exports, 2016 petroleum product imports from Mexico to the U.S. were relatively small, accounting for about 87,000 b/d and valued at $0.9 billion through November.

Bilateral natural gas trade is dominated by pipeline shipments between the United States and Mexico. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico totaled nearly 2.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015, or almost 60 percent of all U.S. natural gas exports, and are growing rapidly.

Based on data through November, U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico averaged 3.8 Bcf/d in 2016, and reports indicate that daily flows during early 2017 are already exceeding 4.2 Bcf/d.

In 2017 and 2018, natural gas pipelines currently under construction or in the planning stages are expected to nearly double the pipeline natural gas exporting capacity from the U.S. to Mexico. Much of this natural gas will likely be used to generate electricity, as Mexico’s energy ministry expects to add significant natural gas-fired electricity generating capacity through 2029.

Copyright: The Maritime Executive