Tag Archive for: gasoline

Mexican president-elect outlines oil sector rescue plans

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Financial Times / Jude Webber / 

Mexico’s incoming president has begun fleshing out his rescue plan for the country’s long-neglected oil sector.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s proposals include a $4bn capital injection for state oil company Pemex to boost exploration, a new refinery to slash reliance on US fuel imports and a 600,000 barrel-a-day increase in crude production in two years.

But analysts warn that his nationally focused energy policy risks putting unsustainable pressure on the world’s most indebted oil company. In particular, they point to plans for a 160bn peso ($8.6bn) refinery to be built in his home state of Tabasco over the next three years — an investment equal to the size of Pemex’s loss in the second quarter.

Mr López Obrador has not spelt out how he would fund his proposals but has named Octavio Romero Oropeza, a long-time confidante and agronomist from Tabasco, to take the helm of Pemex. “We are estimating overall investment to rescue the sector of 175bn pesos next year,” said the president-elect, who takes office on December 1.

The cash injection comes as Pemex has seen output fall from a peak of 3.4m barrels a day in 2004 to 1.866m in the second quarter this year.

Mr López Obrador said output was plunging because “the energy sector and oil industry were abandoned”, and has pledged to lift production to 2.5m b/d in two years.

He has yet to make clear whether he intends to continue with oil tenders that have seen more than 100 contracts awarded to 73 companies since 2015 under a landmark reform designed to lift Mexico’s oil output from a four-decade low. The new administration wants at least a temporary pause to oil tenders.

“Four billion dollars is a significant amount, there’s no doubt. But it is important to put it in perspective . . . One single tender round can inject more investment,” said Pablo Zárate at think-tank Pulso Energético.

Mr López Obrador has promised to achieve energy self-sufficiency by spending 49bn pesos upgrading Pemex’s six lossmaking refineries, where output has halved since May 2013, and building two new ones to halt dependence on US gasoline imports, which have increased by a third in the past two years.

But investors are alarmed at the potential for snowballing costs. The price tag for the first new refinery, to be built in Dos Bocas, has already risen from the $6bn Mr López Obrador’s team had previously indicated. “I don’t know of a single refinery that’s ever been done to budget,” said an investor at a large fund who follows Pemex closely.

Pemex, a monopoly for eight decades, has spent the past two years putting its finances in order and making huge outlays on new refineries could be a serious risk, say analysts.

“Pemex today does not have the cash or free cash flow to take on the construction of new refineries, and if the company decided to finance such an investment with debt or shift capital from exploration and production to refining, its credit metrics would weaken,” cautioned Moody’s Investors Service.

Ramping up refinery capacity could lead to Pemex halving the value of lucrative oil exports, it added.

But Mr López Obrador has said his government would keep its promise of halting gasoline imports in three years and would lower fuel prices.

Pemex has net debt of about $106bn and is expected to post earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of approximately $25bn this year. With the state taking about 70 per cent of profits in tax, Pemex could bump up its debt to pay for refineries — but it already has hefty debt repayments due in 2019 and 2020.

Mr López Obrador’s team has indicated that it wants to halt oil tenders while it reviews contracts awarded to date and decides on whether and how fast to continue auctions.

Indeed, the government has delayed two upcoming tenders, which include joint ventures with Pemex, until next February.

Adrián Lajous, a former Pemex chief executive, has called for a moratorium on oil auctions until 2020 but said joint ventures with Pemex should resume next year.

Even if oil tenders are put on ice, analysts are urging the new administration to allow Pemex to continue forging joint ventures.

“Partnerships will be needed to grow output — international companies bring capital and technical expertise,” said Ruaraidh Montgomery at Wood Mackenzie.

Above all “Pemex should start partnering with companies that specialise in enhanced oil recovery, given the maturity of its portfolio”, to allow it to squeeze more oil from existing fields, said Pablo Medina at Welligence Energy Analytics.

One radical revamp for Pemex could be to follow the “China model”, said Juan Carlos Zepeda, head of Mexico’s oil regulator, keeping the parent company in state hands, but spinning some assets into a partially listed unit, as China National Petroleum Corp has done.

“I would like us to do the same with Pemex but that would require changing the constitution,” he said.

This article has been amended to correct the amount of oil Pemex plans to increase production by in the next two years.

 

Financial Times / Jude Webber / 

 

 

First Phillips 66 Sites Open in Mexico

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CSP Daily News / July 23 

 

EL PASO, Texas — Phillips 66 is opening its first retail sites in Mexico.

The Houston-based refiner, which owns the Phillips 66, 76 and Conoco brands, has a licensing agreement with fuel distributor Windstar LPG to open and operate branded sites in eight northern Mexican states, according to Arizona Public Media (AZPM). The first locations—three 76 branded sites—opened in Hermosillo, Sonora, on July 12. Another site was opening soon after in Chihuahua.

Reynold Gonzalez, CFO for El Paso, Texas-based Windstar, told AZPM that the company has “aggressive plans” for expanding in Mexico, with 25 to 30 branded locations slated for Sonora by the end of 2018.

Phillips 66 follows other U.S. and international refiners in entering the newly deregulated fuel market in Mexico, including ExxonMobil, Shell, Andeavor and BP.

Some industry observers have questioned whether Mexico’s new president-elect, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, might reverse the energy reforms launched in 2013 by his predecessor, Enrique Pena Nieto, which included opening up the fuel market to foreign companies. Lopez Obrador said he would review the reforms if he discovered corruption in how contracts were awarded, Reuters reported; however, he has not announced any plans for rollbacks since winning the election in July.

Gonzalez of Windstar told AZPM that his company would not be opening locations in Mexico if it was concerned about a rollback, and that he believes U.S. competitors could help improve the quality of gasoline for fuel customers in Mexico.

“We are an example of a positive result of the energy reform act,” he said.

 

CSP Daily News / July 23 

 

 

California-based energy company building $150 million Mexico fuels terminal

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Chron / Rye Druzin, Staff Writer / July 12

 

 

A California energy company is moving ahead with a $150 million fuels terminal in the Mexican state of Sinaloa.

Sempra Energy of San Diego is building the fuels terminal in Topolobampo, Mexico through its Mexican subsidiary Infraestructura Energética Nova, S.A.B. de C.V. or IEnova after the company secured a 20 year contract with the Topolobampo Port Administration.

The first phase of the project will have a storage capacity of 1 million barrels for fuels including gasoline and diesel. Sempra Energy expects operations to start in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In April Sempra Energy announced that IEnova would build a $130 million, 1 million barrel fuels terminal at Ensenada, a city in the Mexican state of Baja California.

San Antonio refiner Valero Energy Corp., the largest independent refiner in the U.S., signed a deal in August with IEnova to export refined product into Mexico. The gasoline, diesel and jet fuel would ship to new $155 million storage terminals IEnova will build in the Gulf of Mexico port city of Veracruz. Other storage terminals will be constructed in Puebla, southeast of Mexico City, and in Mexico city itself, to the tune of $120 million.

 

Chron / Rye Druzin, Staff Writer / July 12

 

Competitive fuel market is still some years off, analysts say

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Mexico News Daily / Mileno / June 25

 

Time, more investment required before gas prices will drop

It will take another two to five years to attain a truly competitive fuel market with lower gasoline prices for motorists, according to industry specialists.

The federal government’s 2013 energy reform opened up Mexico’s retail fuel market to foreign and private companies and there are now more than 2,000 gas stations that operate under a brand other than the state-owned Pemex.

But the increased competition hasn’t translated into cheaper fuel prices as had been expected.

“It was thought that it would be faster but that’s not the case,” said Rodrigo Favela, a consultant and fuel market analyst.

Favela told the newspaper Milenio that based on experiences in other countries, creating a competitive market takes time.

In addition, greater competition in the retail fuel market is not enough on its own to generate lower fuel prices, according to Mexico’s central bank.

In its regional economies report for the last quarter of 2017, the Bank of México said greater investment is needed in the entire gasoline supply chain from the refinery to the gas station in order for prices to drop.

Sebastián Figueroa, CEO of energy operator FullGas, told Milenio that gas stations in the north of the country could start competing on price within one to two years.

He cited proximity to the United States, the presence of existing pipelines, greater ease with which fuel can be imported and lower logistics costs as factors that will likely see fuel prices drop more quickly there than in other parts of the country.

In central states, Figueroa predicted that it would be another three to four years before competitiveness among gas stations increases due to the need for more infrastructure while in the southeast of Mexico, it could take up to five years or more.

In the latter region, the development of the new infrastructure that is needed — such as pipelines —is more complicated because of geological factors, he said.

Considering that fuel prices have actually risen since Mexico’s previously monopolized fuel market opened up, Milenio asked the president of the Senate’s energy committee whether energy reform should be considered a failure.

Salvador Vega Casillas, of the opposition National Action Party (PAN), rejected that suggestion but said it was a mistake to liberalize fuel prices at a time when the value of the US dollar was high against the peso. Gasoline prices were fully deregulated by November 30 last year.

However, Figueroa said that if the government had waited any longer to free prices, more problems could have been created for the sector because a subsidized model is not sustainable.

He maintained that the reform is a positive for Mexico, charging that having only one participant in the downstream sector led to inefficiency whereas competition forces gas stations to offer better deals to motorists.

Federal Energy Secretary Pedro Joaquín Coldwell has also contended that an open and competitive market is the best way to achieve gasoline prices that are accessible to all Mexicans.

Favela explained that there are three main factors that determine the price of petroleum at the pump: international crude oil prices, the prevailing exchange rate and logistics costs.

In order to generate a more competitive market, he argued, all petroleum companies should have non-discriminatory access to the nation’s oil terminals and ports.

Despite opening up the domestic fuel market to new players, the majority of Mexico’s petroleum infrastructure is still controlled by the state oil company Pemex.

The average price of regular — or Magna — gasoline has risen 17% this year, according to the consultancy PETROIntelligence, from 16.24 pesos per liter at the beginning of January to 19 pesos. Prices were as high as 19.11 pesos on Friday in Guadalajara.

 

Mexico News Daily / Mileno / June 25

 

Jefferson Energy Companies Originates the First ExxonMobil Unit Trains of Refined Products to Mexico

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From: GlobeNewswire / 11 de Diciembre de 2017

NEW YORK, Dec. 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Jefferson Energy Companies (“Jefferson”), a subsidiary of Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC (NYSE:FTAI), is playing an important role in ExxonMobil’s recent Mexico market entry.  With logistics support from Jefferson, ExxonMobil is the first company to provide an integrated product offering along the entire fuels value chain in Mexico.  Unit trains of gasoline and diesel delivered to Central Mexican markets originated at Jefferson’s terminal in Beaumont, Texas.  The unit train loading was done under an agreement with ExxonMobil. These volumes originated at Jefferson were safely delivered through a destination terminal in San Luis Potosi to retail gasoline stations in the Bajio region. ExxonMobil previously announced its intent to spend $300 million in fuel logistics, product inventories and marketing in support of Mobil-branded stations and Synergy-branded fuels, and these unit train shipments are part of that program.

About the Jefferson Energy Terminal

Jefferson Energy CEO and President Greg Binion said, “We are excited to be an integral part of the transformation of the Mexican energy sector. Further, we are very pleased that ExxonMobil recognized the operational flexibility and advantages that our terminal provides. As this opportunity in Mexico expands, we plan to continue to enter into other contracts to provide logistics for refined products export to Mexico. We also plan to continue to invest in associated tanks as well as rail and loading infrastructure in order to meet the rapidly growing demands of this market.”

The terminal is owned and operated by Jefferson Energy Companies, a midstream oil and terminal company that serves the Gulf Coast. The terminal is located on 243 acres in Beaumont, Texas, positioned in one of the largest refinery markets in the U.S., located in the center of the 9.2 million bbdGulf Coast refining market (PAD III). The terminal is a public-private partnership between the Port of Beaumont Navigation District of Jefferson County, Texas and Jefferson Energy Companies. The Port of Beaumont is the fourth busiest port in the United States, according to the U. S. Army Corp of Engineers tonnage statistics, and the busiest military port in the U.S. The terminal is currently served by three Class I railroad carriers, allowing delivery from most origination terminals and plants in North America.

About Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC

Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC (NYSE:FTAI) owns and acquires high quality infrastructure and equipment that is essential for the transportation of goods and people globally. FTAI targets assets that, on a combined basis, generate strong and stable cash flows with the potential for earnings growth and asset appreciation. FTAI is externally managed by an affiliate of Fortress Investment Group LLC, a leading, diversified global investment firm. For more information about FTAI, visit www.ftandi.com.

Transporte de combustible con ferrocarril

Ferrocarril

From: GlobeNewswire / 11 de Diciembre de 2017

Oil Rises From One-Month Low Before U.S. Crude Inventory Data

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by Grant Smith

“Oil rose from its lowest close in a month amid estimates that U.S. crude inventories continue to shrink, although refined products are growing more plentiful.

Futures gained as much as 0.9 percent in New York after dropping 1 percent Monday. U.S. crude stockpiles are forecast to have decreased for a fourth week from a record last month, according to a Bloomberg survey before a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories probably climbed last week. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release its supply data on Tuesday.

Oil has fallen the past two weeks on concerns increasing U.S. crude production will offset efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to eliminate a global supply glut. While Fereidun Fesharaki, the head of industry consultant FGE, says OPEC is certain to extend output cuts when its ministers meet later in May, industry data showed American rigs targeting crude climbed to the highest level in two years.

“Everyone is waiting for the oil-inventory drawdowns materializing as a result of the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery increased 38 cents to $49.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:15 p.m. London time. Futures fell 49 cents to $48.84 on Monday, the lowest settlement since March 28. Total volume traded was about 16 percent above the 100-day average.

U.S. Fuels

Brent for July settlement rose 54 cents to $52.06 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract dropped 53 cents to settle at $51.52 a barrel on Monday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $2.52 premium to July WTI.

Supplies of gasoline probably rose 1 million barrels to 242 million and inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, surged 1.5 million barrels to 152.4 million last week, according to a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts. Nationwide crude stockpiles are forecast to have dropped by 3.25 million to 525.5 million barrels in the week ended April 28.”

1 de mayo de 2017 19:15 GMT-5

Bloomberg

11 Octubre_shutterstock_393692620

Summer Driving Expectations Get Oil Investors Excited Again

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“Summer may be a few months away but oil investors are already getting their hopes up that American drivers will do their part to rebalance the market.

Hedge funds increased bets on higher West Texas Intermediate crude prices for the first time in six weeks, shrugging off rising U.S. supplies, as the coming driving season is expected to help ease the glut. Their wagers on more expensive gasoline jumped the most since last year, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

U.S. fuel producers typically boost crude processing at this time of year as they prepare for the summer surge in demand. In a sign that they’ve already started, a government report showed refineries operating at the highest rate in about three months. Foreign refiners are also developing a taste for American barrels. Crude exports rose to a record in February as China displaced Canada as the biggest customer, Census Bureau data showed.

“As refinery utilization picks up, and if crude exports to Asia remain high, crude supplies will start to deplete,” Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group LLC in Wellington, Florida, said by telephone. “The market is focused on where the market is heading, not where it’s been, and crude supplies are going to be whittled down.”

Money managers’ WTI net-long position, or the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a drop, climbed 9.2 percent in the week ended April 4 after tumbling 41 percent in the prior five weeks, according to the CFTC. Net bullish bets on gasoline climbed 59 percent, the biggest increase since December.

Refining Boost

Gasoline and diesel producers used 90.8 percent of their crude-processing capacity in the week ended March 31, the most since Jan. 6, according to the Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories have fallen almost 8 percent since mid-February, to 239.1 million barrels.

“Bigger-than-expected draws in gasoline stocks help explain the big gain in gasoline net length,” Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said by phone. “It probably helped boost interest in WTI.”

Oil futures touched an 18-month high on the first day of trading this year as an accord between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other producers to cut output for six months came into effect. Six members of OPEC and Oman back extending production curbs beyond June, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait saying oil stockpiles need to fall to the five-year average.

The outlook for an extension of the accord has also helped renew optimism that prices will rebound, according to Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

Bears Retreat

“The oil bears were in retreat because OPEC appears to be complying pretty well to the quota and the likelihood that the cuts will be extended,” Lynch said by phone.

The net-long position in WTI rose by 22,415 futures and options to 267,030. Longs advanced 2.3 percent, while shorts retreated 12 percent. WTI rose 5.5 percent to $51.03 a barrel in the report week. The U.S. benchmark crude was trading at $52.59, up 0.7 percent, at 9:47 a.m. London time on Monday.

Gasoline futures increased 5.3 percent to $1.7217 a gallon in the report period. The May contract was trading at $1.7486 on Monday, extending gains from the highest close for front-month prices since August 2015.

“Gasoline is a safe place to hang your hat as summer approaches,” Energy Analytics’ Finlon said. “Crude supplies will fall as utilization ramps up to meet gasoline demand.”

 

by Mark Shenk / Bloomberg

9 de abril de 2017 18:01 GMT-5

 

Gulf Waters

 

Mexico, NAFTA and energy on the same side

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When it comes to NAFTA and energy, there is no doubt that Mexico gets the better end of the deal with a series of special carve outs for its national industry. The result has been an unbalanced, incongruous relationship between the United States, Mexico and Canada. In other words, when it comes to energy, NAFTA is anything but free trade .

Take the following examples from chapter six of NAFTA, addressing energy trade:

An American company is permitted to open a power plant in Mexico to generate power for Texas, but, according to the provisions carved out for Mexico’s nationalized energy industry, the power plant would have to sell all of its excess power to Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) at the rate negotiated by CFE. ( Annex 602.3(5) ) If a cogeneration plant is built in Mexico with the express purpose of providing power for a Canadian company’s factory in Mexico, then, according to NAFTA, it must sell any excess power to CFE. ( Annex 602.3(5)(b) ) In both cases, the American and Canadian operations face a disadvantage in price negotiations because they are required to sell excess power to CFE only.

When it comes to oil and gas exploration, NAFTA includes a provision requiring the three countries to maintain incentives to encourage companies to find new energy reserves. ( Article 608.1 ) However, in the special provisions, Mexico is exempted from incentivizing – or even permitting – private exploration and development. This special provision makes clear that “the Mexican State reserves to itself” all E&P, nuclear power, foreign trade, transportation, storage, distribution and electrical supply within its own borders. ( Annex 602.3(1) ). In the U.S. and Canada, free trade in energy exploration must be promoted. In Mexico, the government can do what it chooses .

Mexico is allowed to “restrict the granting of import and export licenses for the sole purpose of reserving foreign trade” in a variety of energy goods including (but not limited to): aviation fuel, gasoline, shale and tar sands, diesel oil, most forms of commercial gasses and kerosene. ( Annex 603.6 ). The U.S. and Canada must keep import and export licenses open.

These carve outs meant to favor Mexico’s national energy industries have not been kind to Mexico’s economy, energy supply or business development. Mexico has insisted one form or another of nationalized energy for almost a century . Basic tenants of capitalism explain that a closed, national energy regime prohibits competition, leading to misalignment of resources and prices. Absent a truly robust and well-managed system in Mexico, this is what happened.

In 2014, historically low levels of oil production, higher energy consumption and depleted oil reserves led Mexico amend its constitution to open Mexico’s state energy industries to foreign investment. These changes permitted the Mexican government to auction off certain oil and gas leases to foreign, private companies for development and to allow foreign companies to participate in owning pipelines, refineries, petrochemical plants and even electricity generation. Mexico also committed to bringing gasoline and natural gas prices in line with market prices rather than setting them artificially.

Although the process has not always been smooth – Mexico is experiencing gasoline shortages and spikes in gasoline prices, in part, as a result of these efforts – the overall trend towards liberalization in Mexico’s energy industry is promising. Many companies have bid for offshore leases to produce oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico and the opportunities to invest in Mexican energy businesses are growing.

Since the Mexican state is no longer the only legal investor, owner, producer, buyer and seller of energy and energy products in Mexico, there is now a potential to renegotiate chapter six of NAFTA and eliminate the special provisions and carve outs for Mexico. This would not only help improve Mexico’s energy situation, but improve trade relations amongst the three North American trade partners.

Grupo México proyecta invertir en energía

Grupo México proyecta invertir en energía

Story by Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian and scholar of the energy industry / Petroleumworld

02 17 2017

Oil Trades Near $44 as U.S. Election Sends Stocks, Dollar Higher

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Oil traded near $44 a barrel in New York amid a broader market rally driven by speculation Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the U.S. election increased after the FBI said her handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime.

Futures rose as much as 2.1 percent in New York following the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s report. The S&P 500 Index was set for its biggest gains since June and the dollar rose against its peers for the first time in seven sessions. Russia, the world’s biggest energy producer, is “on board” with an OPEC agreement to limit crude oil production to help re-balance the market, according to OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo.

“The U.S. election is front and center in all the markets,” said Chris Kettenmann, chief energy strategist at Macro Risk Advisors LLC in New York. “There was talk over the weekend of Russia agreeing to limit production in cooperation with OPEC, but we need to see a resolution from the Nov. 8 vote before the focus shifts to Nov. 30.”

Oil retreated below $45 a barrel following the failure of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree on output quotas for member countries on Oct. 28, which must happen before a deal can be finalized. OPEC pumped at a record rate in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose 32 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $44.39 a barrel at 11:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract slid 59 cents to $44.07 on Friday, the lowest close since Sept. 20. Prices fell 9.5 percent last week, the most in almost 10 months.

Election Focus

Brent for January settlement rose 4 cents to $45.62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices declined 8.3 percent last week, the most since January. The global benchmark traded at an 68-cent premium to January WTI.

“The stock market is up on the increasing likelihood of a Hillary Clinton victory,” said Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group LLC in Wellington, Florida. “This is also strengthening the dollar, which is weighing on commodities.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, rose as much as 0.5 percent. A stronger U.S. currency reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated raw materials as an investment.

A magnitude 5 earthquake struck near Cushing, Oklahoma, the nation’s largest crude-storage hub, prompting some pipeline operators to shut operations at the site as a precaution. Oklahoma’s oil and gas regulator reported that all pipelines under its jurisdiction were operating again after shutting down as a precaution because of the temblor, centered less than 2 miles west of Cushing.

Gasoline dropped to the lowest level in seven weeks after Colonial Pipeline Co. restarted the largest U.S. line for the fuel Sunday, six days after an explosion and fire in Alabama during planned work.

December gasoline futures fell 1.5 percent to $1.3579 a gallon after touching $1.3561, the lowest since Sept. 20. 

Copyright: Bloomberg

‘Well-Timed’ OPEC Talk Forces Oil Bears Into Record Reversal

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OPEC has done it again.

Talk of a potential deal to freeze output helped push oil close to $50 a barrel and prompted money managers to cut bets on falling prices by the most ever. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, went from a bear to a bull market in less than three weeks.

OPEC is on course to agree to a production freeze because its biggest members are pumping flat-out, said Chakib Khelil, the group’s former president. Saudi Energy Minister  Khalid Al-Falih said that the talks may lead to action to stabilize the market.

“This is all courtesy of some very well-timed comments from the Saudi oil minister,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. “They’ve been successful over the last year in jawboning the market, and this is the latest example.”

Hedge funds trimmed their short position in WTI by 56,907 futures and options during the week ended Aug. 16, the most in data going back to 2006, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures rose 8.9 percent to $46.58 a barrel in the report week and closed at $48.52 a barrel on Aug. 19. WTI is up more than 20 percent from its Aug. 2 low, meeting the common definition of a bull market.

“This was a very short market so we were bound to get some covering,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “You probably won’t hear a lot from OPEC with prices up here, but if we get down to where we were a few weeks ago we can expect to hear more.”

Informal Talks

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to hold informal talks to discuss the market at the International Energy Forum next month in Algiers. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the nation was open to discussing a freeze.

Talks to implement a production freeze collapsed in April when Saudi Arabia said it wouldn’t take part without Iranian participation. Iran was restoring exports after sanctions over its nuclear program were lifted in January.  

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and non-member Russia are producing at, or close to, maximum capacity, Khelil said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Aug. 17. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its production rose to an all-time high of 10.67 million barrels a day in July, according to a report from the group.

Ample Stockpiles

Declining crude and gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. also bolstered the market last week. Crude supplies dropped by 2.51 million barrels as of Aug. 12, Energy Information Administration data show. Gasoline inventories slipped 2.72 million barrels during the period. Stockpiles of both crude and gasoline remain at the highest seasonal levels in decades even after the declines.

“There’s a high level of uncertainty right now, so fairly small news can move the market a lot,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “It still remains the case that we have a huge surplus of supply and aren’t going to see it disappear anytime soon.”

Money managers’ short position in WTI dropped to 163,232 futures and options. Longs, or bets on rising prices, increased 0.1 percent, while net longs advanced 56 percent, the most since July 2010.

In other markets, net-bearish bets on gasoline climbed 54 percent to 1,970 contracts. Gasoline futures rose 5.7 percent in the report week. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel increased more than fivefold to 10,835 contracts. Futures advanced 9.8 percent. 

Copyright: Rig Zone