USMCA: Who are the winners and losers of the ‘new NAFTA’?

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Washington Post / Heather Long / October 1

Trump and Trudeau can tout this as a major victory ahead of key elections in their countries. It’s a lot less clear whether ‘NAFTA 2.0’ is good for Mexico and U.S. automakers.

The United States, Canada and Mexico finalized a sweeping new trade deal late Sunday, just hours before their Oct. 1 deadline. President Trump was up early Monday tweeting that the agreement is “a great deal for all three countries,” and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday night that it was a “good day for Canada.”

The deal is expected to take effect around Jan. 1, 2020. Congress has to approve it, a process that will take months, but confirmation looks likely, given that Republicans are pleased Canada got on board and some Democrats are pleased with the stronger labor provisions.

Here’s a look at who’s smiling — and who’s not — as the world sees this news.

Winners:

President Trump. He got a major trade deal done and will be able to say it’s another “promise kept” to his voters right before the midterm elections. And he won the messaging game — he persuaded Canada and Mexico to ditch the name “NAFTA,” for North American Free Trade Agreement, which he hated, and to instead call the new agreement “USMCA,” for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It’s not a total trade revolution, as Trump promised, but USMCA does make substantial changes to modernize trade rules in effect from 1994 to 2020, and it give some wins to U.S. farmers and blue-collar workers in the auto sector. Trump beat his doubters, and his team can now turn to the No. 1 trade target: China.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. There might not be a lot of love lost between Trump and Trudeau, but in the end, Trudeau didn’t cave much on his key issues: dairy and Chapter 19, the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism. Trudeau held out and got what he wanted: Canada’s dairy supply management system stays mostly intact, and Chapter 19 remains in place, a win for the Canadian lumber sector. On dairy, Canada is mainly giving U.S. farmers more ability to sell milk protein concentrate, skim milk powder and infant formula. On top of the substantive issues, Trump went out of his way to criticize the Canadian negotiating team in the final days of deliberations, which Trudeau can play up as a sign of just how hard his staff fought on this deal.

Labor unions. This agreement stipulates that at least 30 percent of cars (rising to 40 percent by 2023) must be made by workers earning $16 an hour, about three times the typical manufacturing wage in Mexico now. USMCA also stipulates that Mexico must make it easier for workers to form unions. The AFL-CIO is cautiously optimistic that this truly is a better deal for U.S. and Canadian workers in terms of keeping jobs from going to lower-paying Mexico or to Asia, although labor is looking carefully at how the new rules will be enforced. It’s possible this could accelerate automation, but that would take time.

U.S. dairy farmers. They regain some access to the Canadian market, especially for what is known as “Class 7” milk products such as milk powder and milk proteins. The United States used to sell a lot of Class 7 products to Canada, but that changed in recent years when Canada started heavily regulating this new class. USMCA also imposes some restrictions on how much dairy Canada can export, a potential win for U.S. dairy farmers if they are able to capitalize on foreign markets.

Stock market investors. A major worry is over, and the U.S. stock market rallied Monday with the Dow gaining nearly 200 points.

Robert E. Lighthizer. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin couldn’t get major trade deals done for the president, but U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer did. He led negotiations with South Korea on the revamped U.S.-South Korea trade deal (KORUS) that the president just signed, as well as on the “new NAFTA.” Lighthizer is proving to be the trade expert closest to Trump’s ear.

Losers:

China. Trump is emboldened on trade. A senior administration official said Sunday that the U.S.-Canada-Mexico deal “has become a playbook for future trade deals.” The president believes his strategy is working, and he’s now likely to go harder after China because his attention won’t be diverted elsewhere (at least on trade matters).

U.S. car buyers. Economists and auto experts think USMCA is going to cause car prices in the United States to rise and the selection to go down, especially on small cars that used to be produced in Mexico but may not be able to be brought across the border duty-free anymore. It’s unclear how much prices could rise (estimates vary), but automakers can’t rely as heavily on cheap Mexican labor now and there will probably be higher compliance costs.

Canadian steel. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum remain in place for now, something Trudeau has called “insulting” since the two countries are longtime allies with similar labor standards.

Unclear:

Mexico. America’s southern neighbor kept a trade deal in place, but it had to make a lot of concessions to Trump. It’s possible this could stall some of Mexico’s manufacturing growth, and it’s unclear whether wages really will rise in Mexico because of this agreement. Big energy companies can also still challenge Mexico via Chapter 11, something that could constrain Mexico’s new government as it aims to reform energy policies.

Ford, GM, Chrysler and other big auto companies. There’s relief among auto industry executives that the deal is done, but costs will be high for big car companies: The steel tariffs are still in place on Canada; more car parts have to come from North America (not cheaper Asia); and more car components have to be made at wages of $16 an hour. It remains to be seen how car companies are able to adjust and whether this has long-term ramifications for their bottom lines.

Big business. Many business groups are relieved that Trump got a trilateral deal and didn’t end up tearing up NAFTA entirely, as he had threatened to do. And they like a lot of the trademark and patent provisions. But the details of USMCA include some losses for big business. Some regulatory compliance costs will probably rise, especially for automakers, and big business lost Chapter 11, the investor dispute settlement mechanism that companies have used to sue Canadian and Mexican governments (the one exception is that energy and telecommunications firms still get a modified Chapter 11 with Mexico).

Washington Post / Heather Long / October 1

Feature: Mexico’s oil industry cautiously optimistic of future energy policy

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S&P Global / Daniel Rodriguez / Edited by Pankti Mehta / October 1

 

Mexico City — Oil and gas executives attending last week’s Mexican Petroleum Congress (CMP) in Acapulco told S&P Global Platts that they were cautiously optimistic about the future of the country’s energy reform, pointing to higher oil prices and some clarification of President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policies.

The conference took place as Lopez Obrador held a closed-door meeting with the country’s association of hydrocarbon producers, AMEXHI, on Thursday in Mexico City.

The incoming administration gave a firm message: Mexico will continue the energy reform and private upstream investment as long as they can deliver results by boosting output.

The meeting cleared some uncertainties that had built up since Lopez Obrador’s electoral victory in July. Obrador has been historically opposed to private investment in Mexico’s energy sector.

PRIVATE OPERATORS TO PRODUCE 280,000 B/D: LOPEZ OBRADOR

According to a video of the meeting obtained by Platts, Lopez Obrador told operators that the future of the reform rested on their shoulders.

“We want to give you the opportunity to invest and work on this reform,” Lopez Obrador said. However, companies must invest and boost output to prove the success of the country’s new energy model.

The president-elect said his goal is that private operators produce 280,000 b/d of crude oil and 305 MMcf/d of the natural gas by the end of his term in 2024. “That would be the ideal. We aren’t asking for more and we are happy with that level,” he said.

This is a very conservative projection compared to the 430,000 b/d estimate shared by outgoing Energy Secretary Pedro Joaquin Coldwell at the inauguration of CMP.

At a webcast press conference Thursday, Mexico’s future energy secretary Rocio Nahle said that auction rounds would be halted. She said the country first needs to evaluate the 110 contracts awarded to date because they have not helped boost domestic production.

“It would be irresponsible to continue auctioning areas without a previous production gain [from awarded areas],” Nahle said.

OPERATORS ARE CALM WITH INCOMING GOVERNMENT

AMEXHI members are allies of the state and can collaborate with Pemex to “continue strengthening Mexico’s energy security,” Alberto de la Fuente, AMEXHI’s president, said in a statement Thursday.

This message of partnership was also shared by senior executives from BHP Billiton, BP, Chevron, DEA Deutsche Erdoel, Equinor, and Shell at the CMP.

“We aren’t here to replace Pemex but to complement it and help to achieve the incoming administration’s goal of boosting oil output,” Steve Pastor, BHP Billiton’s president for petroleum operations, told Platts last week at the CMP.

De la Fuente denied that private operators were uncertain over the review of contracts awarded by the country’s National Hydrocarbon Commission (CNH).

In the statement, he said that AMEXHI members left the meeting with the incoming administration with the knowledge that Lopez Obrador will honor their contracts.

However, some industry members expressed their frustration to Platts at the conference about an apparent lack of understanding from the incoming administration on the long-term nature of the upstream industry.

INCOMING ADMINISTRATION WILL SEEK TO CUT RED TAPE

At the meeting with AMEXHI members, Lopez Obrador said his administration would work with regulators to cut the red tape and quicken the development of new projects.

“Some of you have told me permits take too long, and regulators delay your investment plans as well as Pemex’s activities,” Lopez Obrador said. “We are going to solve all bureaucratic roadblocks.”

Juan Carlos Zepeda, CNH’s president commissioner, told reporters Friday there was space to make the regulatory process leaner and more efficient while protecting the wellbeing of the country’s fields and hydrocarbon resources.

“We share views with President-elect Lopez Obrador and the industry … we are working toward that path without neglecting our responsibility of protecting Mexico’s reservoirs,” Zepeda said.

Right now, Mexico is more efficient than the US when it comes to the development of wells as CNH only requires notice from the operators instead of regulatory approvals, Zepeda said.

Also, CNH is working on a new process to expedite the approval of exploratory and development programs, which is currently under public consultation, he added.

A major regulatory roadblock for Mexico’s upstream sector has been Pemex’s framework to farmout projects via CNH auctions, Pemex senior officials said at CMP.

Zepeda said he supports the idea of Pemex being able to choose its own farm out partners. However, the company should maintain transparency levels upheld by CNH.

 

S&P Global / Daniel Rodriguez / Edited by Pankti Mehta / October 1

 

LOS BENEFICIOS DE LOS SEGUROS EN EL SECTOR HIDROCARBUROS

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Las garantías financieras son instrumentos a través de los cuales los titulares de los contratos firmados con la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH), garantizan el cumplimiento de las obligaciones asumidas. Entre éstas se encuentran los seguros.

Su principal característica es la de fungir como un respaldo económico ante diversas contingencias, ya sea que recaigan en el mismo asegurado o un tercero afectado, como consecuencia de una acción u omisión del asegurado

Existen ciertas actividades en las que existe una mayor exposición al riesgo y con ello una mayor probabilidad de causar daños a terceros y en estos casos, las autoridades en aras de promover el bienestar general, incluyeron en las regulaciones los  seguros para que los responsables cuenten con los recursos necesarios para reparar los daños o perjuicios ocasionados.

Es el caso de los seguros para el sector hidrocarburos que fueron regulados por la Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente (ASEA) a partir de la Reforma Energética.

El artículo 6, fracción I, inciso c, de la Ley de la ASEA, establece la facultad de dicha Agencia, para: “Regular el requerimiento de garantías o cualquier otro instrumento financiero necesario para que los Regulados cuenten con coberturas financieras contingentes frente a daños o perjuicios que se pudieran generar…”

Los seguros que se requieren en el sector energético son complejos, pues generalmente a través de ellos, se amparan los riesgos de las  operaciones de exploración y extracción de hidrocarburos en aguas profundas; transporte de petróleo por barco; tendido de ductos; construcción y operación de terminales de almacenamiento, etc.

Para asegurar adecuadamente a una empresa es necesario conocer su experiencia, sus características,  sus medidas de seguridad operativa e industrial, sus obligaciones contractuales y lo más importante,  el tipo de riesgos a los que está  expuesta, considerando que:

  • Los hidrocarburos y petrolíferos son actividades peligrosas por sus características de inflamabilidad y explosividad;
  • Se les considera actividades altamente riesgosas;
  • Conllevaninfraestructura de grandes dimensiones y con altos grados de inversión económica;
  • Se pueden encontrar en zonas social y ambientalmente vulnerables y
  • Están expuestas a las acciones u omisiones de contratistas, sub-contratistas y proveedores de servicio.​

NRGI Broker ofrece asesoramiento profesional para la contratación de los programas integrales de seguros, con las coberturas que pueden contratarse en México, pero también cuenta con la capacidad para colocar coberturas en el mercado internacional de reaseguro, cuando se trata de “grandes riesgos”.

En México experimentamos la reconfiguración del sector energético, que dio lugar a una mayor  participación de empresas del sector privado, nacional e internacional, así como  nuevas obligaciones  por lo que las empresas  requieren que sus inversiones estén correctamente respaldadas  y trabajar con proveedores ágiles, con costos y tiempos de respuesta eficientes y para la consecución de ese objetivo, por ello es fundamental la contratación de un corredor de seguros experimentado, especializado y confiable.

En NRGI Broker, contamos con la experiencia y la especialización en seguros para todas las actividades el sector energético que necesitas. Acércate a nosotros, con gusto te atenderemos.

 

Chevron signs contract for refined fuels terminal in Mexico

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Hydrocarbons Technology / September 17

 

Chevron Combustibles de México has signed a long-term contract with Sempra Energy’s Mexican subsidiary, Infraestructura Energética Nova (IEnova), to use 50% of the initial capacity of the proposed Topolobampo refined fuels marine terminal.

IEnova is developing the refined fuels terminal in Sinaloa, Mexico, with an initial capacity of one million barrels.

Pursuant the contract, subsidiaries of Chevron will have storage capacity of 500,000 barrels of refined fuels.

In addition, Chevron will have an option to purchase up to 25% of the equity in the terminal following the commencement of commercial operations.

IEnova also signed a contract with an undisclosed US refiner for the remaining 50% of the facility’s initial storage capacity.

“The Topolobampo project provides an important supply source of refined fuels for Mexico.”

IEnova executive chairman Carlos Ruiz Sacristán said: “The Topolobampo project provides an important supply source of refined fuels for Mexico. Together, working with our customers, this terminal will increase reliability of supply, create jobs and provide benefits to millions of Mexican consumers.”

IEnova received a 20-year contract in July this year from the Topolobampo Port Administration Terminal to develop, construct and operate the marine terminal in Sinaloa.

The terminal involves an estimated investment of $150m and is expected to become operational in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Last week, IEnova reached a deal to allow British Petroleum to use 50% of the one-million-barrel initial capacity of the refined fuels Baja Refinados terminal, which is to be constructed in Baja California.

Earlier this year, Chevron booked the other 50% initial capacity of the Baja Refinados facility.

 

Hydrocarbons Technology / September 17

 

Línea Base Ambiental: Retos y Oportunidades para el Sector Hidrocarburos 

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Los estudios de Línea Base Ambiental (LBA) son estudios de tipo técnico especializados que son requeridos por la Agencia de Seguridad, Energía y Ambiente(ASEA) de la Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) a los regulados del Sector Hidrocarburos para: determinar las condiciones ambientales en las que se encuentran los componentes ambientales de las áreas contractuales, así como la identificación y registro de daños preexistentes y daños ambientales.

La LBA es también un insumo importante para la elaboración de las Manifestaciones de Impacto Ambiental, a efecto de cumplir con lo dispuesto en el contrato celebrado entre la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) y los Regulados. Los objetivos principales para la realización de los estudios de LBA son:

  • Identificar y describir la infraestructura existente en el área contractual y su estado actual físico y operacional para identificar y evaluar los daños ambientales que hayan sido generados por esta, para el deslinde de responsabilidades.
  • Identificar y evaluar las condiciones ambientales en que se encuentran los ecosistemas y recursos naturales, existentes en el área contractual y zona de influencia, previo a la ejecución de las actividades del contrato.
  • Evaluar los daños y pasivos ambientales ocasionados por las actividades humanas o procesos naturales en la zona contractual y de influencia a efecto de deslindarse de las responsabilidades

En el artículo 27, párrafo séptimo de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, se establece que las actividades de exploración y extracción del petróleo y demás hidrocarburos se realizarán mediante asignaciones a empresas productivas del Estado o a través de contratos con éstas o con particulares, por lo que la presentación de la LBA ante la ASEA se traduce en una obligación para estas entidades.

Para orientar la elaboración de los estudios de LBA la autoridad a puesto a disposición de los regulados dos guias: a) “Guía para la elaboración y presentación de la Línea Base Ambiental previo al inicio de las actividades de Exploración y Extracción de Hidrocarburos en Áreas Terrestres” y b) la “Guía para la elaboración y presentación de la línea base ambiental previo al inicio de las actividades marinas de exploración y extracción de hidrocarburos en aguas someras”.

Es sumamente importante para los regulados que pretenden el aprovechamiento de zonas contractuales, el identificar, evaluar y detallar de manera precisa los daños ambientales preexistentes a través de los estudios de LBA, ya que solo podrán eximir su responsabilidad ambiental respecto a dichos daños, siempre y cuando hayan sido registrados y manifestados en dichos estudios.

Considernado la relevancia que tienen los estudios de LBA para los regulados, en cuanto al deslinde de los pasivos ambientales y sociales preexistentes de las áreas contractuales, es fundamental que dimensionen la necesidad de que la elaboración de la LBA debe ser realizada por empresas o plataformas técnico-científicas de especialistas calificados y con capacidad demostrada para la realización de este tipo de estudios. El deslindarse de dichos pasivos a través de buenos estudios de LBA y no asumir ningun riesgo financiero, social, legal y ambiental, es uno se los mejores seguros para sostener la viabilidad de sus inversiones y no comprometer su reputación como empresa y regulado ante la eventualidad de que se generen contingencias ambientales.

Un buen estudio de LBA debe sustentar además, las bases para el diseño e implementación de los Sistemas de Manejo y Gestión Ambiental y Social (SMGAS) para la prevención, manejo, mitigación y monitoreo de impactos ambientales y sociales durante las fases de preparación, construcción, operación y mantenimiento de los proyectos o de las áreas contractuales que deberán ser establecidos en las manifestaciones de impacto ambiental, estudios del cambio de uso del suelo de terrenos forestales, evaluaciones de impacto social y estudios de riesgo ambiental que correspondan. El proceso de elaboración y evaluación de los estudios de LBA se presenta en la siguiente figura:

 

 

Con más de 20 años de experiencia, cobertura internacional y fuerte compromiso con la sustentabilidad, la innovación y la calidad de nuestros servicios en el sector hidrocarburos, energía, turismo, desarrollo urbano,  infraestructura, medio ambiente y minería; GPPA y nuestros socios estratégicos NRGI Brokers y Rodríguez Dávalos Abogados, asi como especialistas de diferentes institutos y centros de investigación, hemos conformado una plataforma técnico-cientifica de expertos nacionales e internacionales con la mayor capacidad en el país para ofrecer soluciones integrales y con valor agregado a los regulados del sector hidrocarburos, para resolver sus necesidades en materia de planeación, manejo, gestión ambiental y legal, desarrollo sostenible, fianzas y seguros de responsabilidad ambiental,  incluyendo la elaboración de estudios de LBA, Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental, Evaluación de Impacto Social, entre otros productos y servicios.

 

Para mayor información y cualquier duda o necesidad derivada de la información presentada en el presente boletín, estamos a su disposición a través de:

Consultores en Gestión Política y Planificación Ambiental, S.C.

David Zárate Lomelí

Director General

Teléfono: (998) 6 88 08 75

E-mail: dzarate@gppa.com.mx

www.gppa.com.mx

Mexico oil production to reach 2.6 mil b/d by 2025: Lopez Obrador

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S&P Globals Platts / Wendy Wells / Daniel Rodríguez / September 11

 

Mexico City — Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Sunday he plans to focus on developing and exploring onshore and shallow water areas under the control of state oil company Pemex to boost the country’s oil production.

“We have a projection, and our plan is to have production of at least 2.6 million b/d by the end of the presidential term; additional production of 800,000 b/d,” Lopez Obrador said in webcast press conference.

Lopez Obrador was speaking to journalists after a meeting with Mexican drilling and oil service companies at Villahermosa in Tabasco.

Mexico’s production averaged 1.8 million b/d in July, down from an historical high of 3.4 million b/d in 2004, latest data from Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission showed.

Lopez Obrador said the incoming administration plans to tender drilling contracts in December when his six-year term begins to develop Pemex’s shallow water and inland areas to boost oil production. “We are inviting all companies to participate in these tenders. However, we will have a preference over domestic contractors,” he added.

He said he planned to add Peso 75 billion ($3.9 billion) to Pemex’s exploration and production budget to boost drilling and thus raise output. The tenders will help Mexico reverse its production downtrend by the end of 2019, he added.

Mexico’s oil industry is at a crisis as a result of low public investment in the sector. Pemex in 2017 had an E&P capital expenditure budget of Peso 81.5 billion, down from Peso 222 billion in 2014, the company’s annual financial statements show. The cut in Pemex’s budget resulted in a significant decrease in drilling activity; it drilled 83 wells in 2017, compared with 705 in 2013.

Lopez Obrador blamed the previous administration for Pemex’s lower capital expenditure, claiming it was done on purpose amid expectations the private sector would offset lower activity from the state company. “It has been a complete failure, this wrongly named energy reform,” Lopez Obrador said

The president-elect has historically been an opponent of private participation in Mexico’s energy sector. His critics note Pemex’s spending cuts reflect lower global oil prices after 2014.

The president-elect neither mentioned the long-term nature of the energy sector nor the advances made by Eni at Amoca, PanAmerica with Hotchi and Talos with Zama, where peak production across the three fields could be above 250,000 b/d.

Analysts also point out that Lopez Obrador does not acknowledge that it has been a challenge for Mexico to replace production from the aging Cantarell super field, which produced 2.1 million b/d in 2003 and but 160,000 b/d in July.

Mexico won’t call for new hydrocarbon auction rounds until all 107 contracts awarded to date under the energy reform are reviewed for corruption, Lopez Obrador said.

“The majority aren’t working, there is no investment, but those 107 contracts don’t include all the oil regions in the country, just a fraction of Mexico’s hydrocarbon potential,” he added.

The president-elect did not indicate when this contract review process could conclude. Currently, Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission is organizing two gas-rich auction rounds, which are expected to be awarded in February.

The commission postponed both auctions as well as a Pemex’s auction to farm out seven onshore clusters in southern Mexico from this summer until the coming year, citing a request from the industry for more time to analyze the areas as well as the opportunity to involve the incoming administration in the process.

Lopez Obrador said the state owns all of Mexico’s oil resources, and has greater control over areas that have not yet been assigned. “The greater majority of our oil potential is still under the control of Pemex,” he added.

 

S&P Globals / Wendy Wells / Daniel Rodríguez / September 11

 

The regime of strict liability in the activities of Exploration and Extraction of hydrocarbons

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The General Administrative Provisions that establish the Guidelines on Industrial and Operational Safety and Environmental Protection to carry out the activities of Surface Recognition and Exploration, Exploration and Extraction of Hydrocarbons (DACG/E&E), were published in the Official Gazette of the Federation, issued by the National Agency for Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection of the Hydrocarbons Sector (ASEA), established  that those who carry out works or activities for the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons are subject to a regime of strict liability, that is, they operate under the assumption that they are creating a risk to people and the environment and, therefore, in case of causing damage they must carry out its repair, without this being conditioned to prove their fault.

 

Derived from the above, ASEA imposes on operators the obligation to perform all actions necessary to prevent environmental damage arising from the risks created, for which they must contain, characterize and remedy them with opportunity under their own processes and according to the applicable legislation and regulations.

 

In this sense, the “DACG/E&E” establish that Exploration and Extraction activities must be carried out under certain principles, such as:

 

  1. Minimize the risks at a level that is as low as reasonably possible, that is, up to a level where it is demonstrated that the cost of continuing to reduce that risk is greater compared to the economic benefit that would be obtained. This allows a reasonable balance between economic activity and the protection of third parties and the environment.
  2. Regularly review the risk reduction measures in order to update them based on the technological development and specialized knowledge.

 

  1. Implement emergency measures and foster a culture of the protection of people, the environment and facilities.

 

The aforementioned principles are aimed at preventing the accidents from happening, so they must be complemented with measures that have as their object the repair and / or compensation of the damages caused by the an accident.

 

One of the most effective measures to achieve this is to have financial instruments that allow for the consequences of the materialization of risks, such as an insurance.

At NRGI Broker we are experts in insurance for the Exploration and Extraction of Hydrocarbons. Come to us.

 

U.S. oil prices rise as Gulf platforms shut ahead of hurricane

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Reuters / Henning Gloystein / September 3

 

* Storm Gordon to make U.S. landfall as hurricane

* Brent dips as India takes steps to continue Iran imports

* Global oil markets have tightened since 2017 – Barclays

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 4 (Reuters) – U.S. oil prices edged up on Tuesday, rising back past $70 per barrel, after two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms were evacuated in preparation for a hurricane.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $70.04 per barrel at 0034 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent from their last settlement.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane.

International Brent crude futures, by contrast, lost ground, trading at $78.10 per barrel, down 5 cents from their last close.

This came as India allowed state refiners to import Iranian oil if Tehran arranges and insures tankers.

Many international shippers have stopped loading Iranian oil as U.S. financial sanctions against Tehran prevents them from insuring its cargoes.

Mirroring a step by China, where buyers are shifting nearly all their Iranian oil imports to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC), this means that Asia’s two biggest oil importers are making plans to continue Iran purchases despite pressure by Washington to cut orders.

CHANGING MARKET

Britain’s Barclays bank said on Tuesday that oil markets had changed since 2017 when worries about rising supply were more evident.

“U.S. producers are resisting temptation and exercising capital discipline, OPEC and Russia have convinced market participants they are managing the supply of over half of global production, the U.S. is using sanctions more actively, and several key OPEC producers are at risk of being failed states,” Barclays said.

Crude oil “prices could reach $80 and higher in the short term”, the bank said, although it added that despite these developments global supply may exceed demand next year.

For 2020, Barclays said it expects Brent to average $75 per barrel, up from its previous forecast of just $55 a barrel.

French bank BNP Paribas struck a similar tone, warning of “supply issues” for the rest of the year and into 2019.

“Crude oil export losses from Iran due to U.S. sanctions, production decline in Venezuela and episodic outages in Libya are unlikely to be offset entirely by corresponding rises in OPEC+ production due to market share sensitivities,” the bank said.

“We do not expect oil demand to be materially impacted in the next 6-9 months by economic uncertainty linked to U.S./China trade tensions and recent concerns over emerging markets,” he added.

BNP Paribas expects Brent to average $79 per barrel in 2019.

 

Reuters / Henning Gloystein / September 3

 

The strategic value of the pipelines

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The Five-Year Expansion Plan of the National Integrated Natural Gas Transportation and Storage System 2015-2019 contemplates the construction of more than 5,000 km of natural gas pipelines, with an estimated investment of close to 10,000 million dollars. For its elaboration, the National Infrastructure Program 2014-2018 was taken as a basis, in which the gas pipeline construction projects are planned, with an approach that seeks to guide the integral functionality of the new infrastructure of the country.

On the other hand, the main objective of the Quinquennial Plan is to bring natural gas, considered the most efficient fuel and of intensive use, to different areas of the country, among which are Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Aguascalientes, Durango, Michoacán, Guerrero, San Luis Potosi, Chihuahua, Sonora, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, especially in industrial areas and those where up to now this hydrocarbon has not been accessed.

The foregoing is in line with one of the objectives of the Energy Reform, consisting of the safe, reliable and competitive supply of natural gas.

These new gas pipelines will be added to the more than 10,000 km already existing, and will increase the capacity of transportation of natural gas by 50%.

It is worth mentioning that the expansion of the gas pipeline network can bring with it a greater possibility of accidents, considering that the pipelines are one of the means of transport that present a greater frequency and severity of accidents, due to the fact that they are exposed to various hazards as: explosion, fire, natural phenomena and ill-intentioned acts.

Therefore, it is very important that during the construction and operation of the pipelines, the insurance coverage is adequate for the complexity of this means of transport, for which it must be taken into account that the damages may affect the infrastructure, people, their assets and the environment.

In NRGI Broker we are experts in designing comprehensive insurance schemes for the Hydrocarbons Sector, come to us.

 

Risks in the Hydrocarbons Sector

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A risk, according to the Law of the National Agency for Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection of the Hydrocarbons Sector (ASEA), is the probability that an undesired event will occur, measured in terms of its consequences to personnel, to the population, to facilities and equipment and the environment. In short, a risk is the probability of an accident occurring.

In this regard, it is important to consider that “risk” is not synonym to “danger”, since the latter refers to the intrinsic conditions or characteristics of an object capable of causing harm, while the risk is the probability of that damage occurring. From the above it follows that there are situations and objects that are dangerous themselves and therefore have the potential to cause harm, that is, they represent a risk, which however can be controlled and minimized.

In terms of hydrocarbons, oil and gas are hazardous materials, given their explosive and flammable characteristics. Therefore, the activities in which they are involved represent a risk, hence they are legally defined as highly risky activities.

In addition to the intrinsic characteristics, the operations carried out throughout the hydrocarbon value chain are highly complex, since 1) they involve large-scale infrastructure: drilling platforms, ship-tanks, pipelines, storage terminals, others; 2) are carried out in conditions that may be extreme, for example, drilling an oil well in the sea or traveling long distances through a ship or a train; 3) Advanced technology and specialized personnel are required.

Derived from the above, it is necessary to take all the measures in risk management to avoid accidents from happening. However, although a risk can be prevented and controlled, it can not be eliminated completely, so in any case, it will be necessary to transfer it, with the aim of preventing a company from absorbing the total economic losses that a loss may represent and that they can translate into a significant patrimonial detriment.

A risk can be transferred to an insurance company, through an insurance contract in which the insurer is committed to the insured, who in return for a premium, will indemnify him in case he suffers a loss that causes losses economic, as long as the event corresponds to the insured object, conforms to the terms and conditions established in the policy and is not an exclusion.

In the SectorHydrocarbons Sector, there are specific insurances to cover the risks inherent to this activity, which have also been established as mandatory by the regulatory authority (ASEA), such as: 1) Well control; 2) Civil Liability and 3) Environmental Responsibility.

At NRGI Broker, we are experts in insurance for the Hydrocarbons Sector. Come to us.