Tag Archive for: #OILMARKET

OPEC’s Stable Market Outlook Points to Status Quo at Meeting

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OPEC kept forecasts for global oil supply and demand unchanged in its last monthly assessment before members meet to review the market.

The 13 nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 32.44 million barrels a day in April, slightly less than will be required to meet demand in the third quarter. Production rose as gains in Iran and Iraq compensated for losses in Nigeria and Kuwait. Investment by the global oil industry through 2018 will slump to less than half the amount spent from 2012 to 2014 following the collapse in prices, OPEC said.

Oil prices have rebounded more than 75 percent from the lows reached in February as U.S. shale production falters, signaling that Saudi Arabia’s strategy to re-balance oversupplied world markets is taking effect. OPEC, which failed to complete an accord with non-members last month on capping output, has no current plans to revive supply limits when ministers meet on June 2, six delegates said on May 4.

“We shouldn’t expect any freeze and definitely not any cut because OPEC sees things are improving from a fundamental point of view,” said Torbjoern Kjus, an analyst at DNB ASA in Oslo. “The structural decline based on lower investment is starting to show up in numbers for non-OPEC. That damage is done, even if prices recover in the second half.”

April Increase

OPEC production increased by 188,200 barrels a day last month to 32.44 million, according to the report. While the group’s supply has typically exceeded the required amount in recent months, April output is about 380,000 barrels a day below the 32.8 million that OPEC estimates will be needed in the third quarter. That potential shortfall is a further indication the organization’s policy is working.

Global oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, this year to 94.18 million a day, according to the report. Supplies from outside the group will shrink by 740,000 barrels a day to 56.4 million.

“A return to balance is a shared interest among consumers and producers alike,” the group’s Vienna-based research department said in the monthly report.

 

 

Font: Bloomberg

Oil prices edge up on lower US rig numbers

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Oil prices edged up in Asia on Monday, recovering slightly from last week s decline, but analysts said traders would likely delay any big moves until next month s meeting of key producers.

Hopes for an agreement between Russia, Saudi Arabia and other crude giants to at least freeze output sent both main contracts racing above $40 earlier this month, helped by a dive in the strength of the dollar.

At around 0620 GMT US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 50 cents, or 1.27 percent, to $39.96. Brent was up 45 cents, or 1.11 percent, at $40.89.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-members led by Russia are due to discuss a proposed output freeze at a meeting in Doha on April 17.

Bernard Aw at IG Markets told AFP a dip in the number of US oil rigs in operation provided some buying incentives, although business had been slim due to the long Easter break across most world markets.

However, he warned that “the fundamental picture of oil is still a little bit bearish” owing to a global supply glut and a slowdown in the global economy, particularly China.

“Everything hinges on the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers,” Aw said. “If it takes place and they come to some agreement of a production freeze, we could see some gains well beyond $40.”

Qatar s energy minister Mohammed al-Sada, who also serves as OPEC president, earlier said the initiative was backed by 15 countries accounting for 73 percent of worldwide output.

Sanjeev Gupta, who heads the Asia-Pacific oil and gas practice at professional services firm EY, said traders would also be looking at upcoming US and Chinese economic data for direction.

 

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Copyright: Pakistantoday

Global shares climb as firmer Chinese yuan eases deflation fears

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World stocks rose sharply on Monday as China’s central bank fixed the yuan at a much stronger rate and oil cemented recent gains, easing fears of global deflation. 

The rally belied a string of poor economic data from Beijing and Tokyo as demand for safe-haven assets waned, yet investors remained on edge due to lingering concerns about growth and the health of the financial sector. 

European stocks rose 3 percent .FTEU3, having shed nearly 10 percent over the last fortnight, mirroring a bounce in Asia. Futures pointed to notional gains of 1.6 percent on Wall Street ESc1 but U.S. markets will be closed for a holiday.

 Meanwhile, assets that tend to perform well in times of stress lagged. The Japanese yen lost ground against the U.S. dollar, top-rated German bond yields edged away from nine-month lows and gold slipped 2 percent after its strongest week in four years.

“We had a very strong statement from the Chinese authorities signaling they are committed to a stable currency and that’s helped sentiment … safe-haven flows have unwound somewhat,” said RIA Capital Markets strategist Nick Stamenkovic.

In China, spot yuan jumped more than 1 percent to 6.4934 per dollar – its firmest this year – after the People’s Bank of China set its daily midpoint 0.3 percent stronger and the head of the bank was quoted as saying speculators should not be allowed to dominate market sentiment. [CNY/] A stronger yuan reduces the risk that China will export deflation to the world, while worries about consumer price growth have also been helped by bounce back in the oil price.

Brent LCOc1 and U.S. crude futures CLc1 edged up on Monday adding to Friday’s 10 percent surge on speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might finally agree to cut output to reduce a world glut.

Euro zone long-term inflation expectations also rebounded from record lows on Monday even as Germany’s Bundesbank cut its forecast for consumer price growth in the bloc’s biggest economy.

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DISCONNECT

China’s weak exports and imports in January, down 11.2 percent and 18.8 percent year-on-year respectively, seemed not to disturb markets. The resulting jump in the country’s trade surplus to $63 billion for the month might have helped, as that may offer support to the yuan.

The disconnect between markets and economics was perhaps starkest in Japan, where the Nikkei .N225 jumped more than 7 percent, putting its worst week since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008 quickly behind it.

This came despite data showing the economy contracted by an annualized 1.4 percent in the last three months of 2015, more than expected.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 2.3 percent .MIAPJ0000PUS, after losing 10 percent of its value so far this year.

European shares followed in their wake, led by a 4 percent rebound in banking stocks .SX7P on news that the European Central Bank (ECB) is in talks to buy bundles of Italian bad bank loans as part of its asset-purchase program.

Yet some strategists cautioned that Monday’s rebound may prove short-lived, with concern that central banks have little ammunition left to fight off the heady mix of an oil-induced deflationary forces, capital outflows and economic weakness in China, and pressure on the world’s financial sector.

“It’s possible we could see calmer markets this week but we are not out of the woods yet,” Thomas Harr. global head of fixed income and currency research at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.

“For the last couple of weeks we have seen a bit of central bank fatigue – they have cut rates into negative but it isn’t having much of an impact.

Against a basket of currencies .DXY, the dollar was up slightly at 96.433 having been at its lowest in almost four months. Likewise, it edged up to 113.99 yen JPY=, having touched a 15-month trough just under 111.00 last week.

The euro was last down 0.6 percent at $1.1184 EUR=, having slipped from a 3-1/2 month peak of $1.1377.

 

Copyright: Reuters

No Decision Yet on OPEC, Non-OPEC Meeting, Some in OPEC Skeptical: Delegates

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OPEC has not yet scheduled any talks with Russia and other non-OPEC countries aimed at supporting oil prices, two OPEC delegates said on Tuesday after Russian officials talked up potential cooperation with the exporter group.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was open to further cooperation in the oil market with OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

The prospect of supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and rivals has helped oil prices rise above $32 a barrel from a 12-year low close to $27 last month, despite widespread scepticism that a deal will happen.

OPEC delegates have previously suggested OPEC and non-OPEC could hold talks in February or March. But no date has been scheduled, and one delegate said OPEC did not have a common view on the aim of such a meeting.

“There is nothing from OPEC yet. It is not fixed,” an OPEC delegate said, who added that expert-level OPEC meetings with non-members held in 2015 did not result in supply cuts.

“We had two meetings before. The two sides discussed the market, but there were no concrete steps.”

A second OPEC delegate said there was little point in OPEC holding a meeting with non-OPEC until OPEC itself had agreed a common position. For example, Iran, after the lifting of Western sanctions, wants to recover market share, a source familiar with the matter said last week, not cut output.

“Some of them, OPEC member-countries, are not sure what we are going to do in this meeting with non-OPEC,” the delegate said. “If the meeting takes place without results, we’ll have a big problem with the market, the price will go down.”

Venezuela has called for a standalone meeting of OPEC to discuss steps to prop up prices. But a number of OPEC members have reacted coolly to the idea, suggesting no meeting will take place.

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Copyright: New York Times